Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
425 PM EDT Sat Oct 22 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Oct 23 2022 - 00Z Tue Oct 25 2022

...A robust low pressure system will bring the first widespread wintry
weather event of the season across the Cascades, northern and central
Rockies as well as the northern High Plains through the weekend into
Monday...

...Much colder air will surge across the western U.S. while much above
normal temperatures surge north into the upper Midwest and the Great
Lakes...

...Fire weather risk is critical over parts of the central Plains...

A major change in the upper-level pattern across the U.S. will be
manifested by a rapidly developing low pressure system moving across the
northern Rockies into the northern Plains through the weekend.  This
system will bring the first widespread wintry weather event of the season
across the Cascades, northern and central Rockies as well as the northern
High Plains through the weekend and into Monday.  Cold air surging
southward from western Canada will usher much below normal temperatures
all the way through the western U.S. and down into northern Mexico by
Monday.  Meanwhile, broad and deep southerly flow ahead of the
intensifying system will push very warm air northward into the northern
Plains through this weekend, where afternoon temperatures well up into the
80s are expected.  Warmest locations will likely be this afternoon over
the south-central Plains where highs will be into the low 90s.  Some of
these readings could challenge daily record high temperatures at some
locations.  The low pressure system is forecast to intensify rapidly as it
moves across the northern Plains on Sunday.  A band of moderate to heavy
rain is forecast to change over to moderate to heavy snow over the
northern High Plains as the system intensifies.  The storm is forecast to
approach peak intensity Monday morning as it tracks northeastward into
southern Canada.  Gale force winds are expected to accompany the storm in
addition to the change over from heavy rain to heavy snow from eastern
Montana to western North Dakota from Sunday night into Monday morning. 
Conditions should begin to improve by Monday afternoon as the system
begins to move farther into southern Canada.  In the meantime,
increasingly gusty southerly winds in a dry environment will promote
critical fire danger across the central Plains through the weekend.  By
later on Sunday, the eastern part of the northern/central Plains into the
upper Midwest could be impacted by severe thunderstorms ahead of a potent
cold front.

Meanwhile, low pressure waves developing along a slow-moving front off the
East Coast will steer moisture closer to the coast, producing light rain
near the Mid-Atlantic coast by later on Sunday.  By Sunday night into
Monday, southeastern New England should see the rain moving into the
region and gradually spreading northeastward into Maine.

Hurricane Roslyn currently churning just off the west coast of Mexico is
forecast to make landfall and weaken rapidly over the mountainous terrain
of central Mexico on Sunday.  By Monday, higher level moisture associated
with the remnants of Roslyn is forecast to interact with the trailing cold
front associated with the deep cyclone over the northern Plains.  Rain and
thunderstorms are expected to quickly develop and expand across the
southern Plains toward the Mississippi Valley on Monday as a frontal wave
forms.  Meanwhile, moisture associated with the next Pacific system will
rapidly reach the Pacific Northwest Sunday night, bringing the next round
of rain for the lower elevation of the Pacific Northwest and
high-elevation snow from the Cascades to the northern Rockies, and then
the northern High Plains on Monday.

Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php