Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Mon Oct 24 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Oct 24 2022 - 12Z Wed Oct 26 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the Southern
Plains and Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning...

â€There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains on Monday moving to the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee
Valley on Tuesday into Wednesday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above average over parts of the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley...

...Snow for parts of the Cascades and the Northern Rockies...

On Monday, a front extending from the Upper Midwest to the Southern High
Plains will move eastward to the Lower Great Lakes to the Southeast by
Wednesday morning. Showers and thunderstorms will develop along and ahead
of the boundary on Monday from the Upper Midwest to the Southern High
Plains. Ahead of the front, Temperatures will be 10 to 20 degrees above
average over parts of the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley.

The system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms over the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through Tuesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain over
the region. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive
rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains and
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley through Tuesday morning. The associated
heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with
urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.

Furthermore, the system will produce snow over parts of the Northern
Plains ending mainly by Tuesday morning. The snow will result in reduced
visibility and hazardous driving conditions. Therefore, the winter weather
has prompted Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Storm Watches over parts of
the Northern Plains. Additionally, snow will develop over parts of the
Southern Rockies on Monday.

On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms moves eastward to parts of
the Lower Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley. Therefore, the SPC has
issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Lower
Mississippi Valley/Tennessee Valley from Tuesday into Wednesday morning.
The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning,
severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Also, rain will develop along the front from the Upper Great Lakes to the
Middle Mississippi Valley on Tuesday. The rain has the potential to be
heavy over parts of the Middle Mississippi and Western Ohio Valleys.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley and Western Ohio Valley. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, on Monday, weak low pressure and associated front off the
Mid-Atlantic Coast will steer moisture into the Mid-Atlantic and
Northeast, producing light rain over parts of the northern Mid-Atlantic
into New England. Overnight Monday, the front and low slowly dissipate,
yet on Tuesday, the rain will gradually taper off yet linger into
Wednesday morning.

Elsewhere, a front moves onshore over the Pacific Northwest, moving
southeastward to the Southwest/Central Rockies by Wednesday. The system
produces light rain and higher-elevation snow, with snow returning to the
Northern Rockies by Monday evening. The rain and higher elevation snow
will continue over the Northwest into the Northern Rockies through
Wednesday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php