Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
354 PM EDT Wed Oct 26 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Oct 27 2022 - 00Z Sat Oct 29 2022

...Unsettled weather in northern New England will exit the region by
Thursday morning leading to pleasant end of week...

...High-elevation accumulating snow across the Rockies through Thursday
evening as upper-level energy digs southward...

...Showers and thunderstorms in the Southern Plains tomorrow and Friday as
a potent storm system tracks eastward...

Unsettled weather will continue across northern New England this evening
as an upper-level trough slides eastward and draws anomalously moist air
into the region, leading to the potential for heavy rainfall and localized
flash flooding. Conditions will begin to improve overnight as
precipitation progresses northeastward into Canada, resulting in pleasant
weather and slightly above-average temperatures to close out the remainder
of the work week.

Outside of northern New England, much of the eastern third of the nation
will enjoy tranquil conditions through Friday as high pressure slides
eastward. Temperatures will remain slightly above-average-to-average, with
highs in the 60s and 70s across much of the region today, before dropping
closer to normal on Thursday and Friday. Moreover, clouds will begin to
break during the overnight Wednesday hours, resulting in beautiful
conditions to view the fall foliage that has overtaken much of the
northern Mid-Atlantic this past week.

A strong upper-level low will continue to bring unsettled weather to the
Intermountain West through Thursday before diving southeastward into the
central and southern Plains by Thursday afternoon. The system will produce
rain and higher-elevation snow across the northern Great Basin and Pacific
Northwest this afternoon, with precipitation expanding eastward into parts
of the Northern and Central Rockies tonight, leading to the issuance of
Winter Weather Advisories in the Colorado Rockies, where the potential
exists for accumulating snowfall. Conditions should begin to improve
across the region Thursday evening as the system progresses into the
southern Plains.

As the system dives southward, a strong, southerly moisture fetch off of
the Gulf of Mexico will allow for anomalously moist air to stream
northward into the southern Plains and Gulf Coast, leading to the
potential for showers and thunderstorms that could lead to heavy rainfall
across the region on Thursday and Friday. Therefore, a Marginal Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been hoisted over parts of the Southern Plains and
Gulf Coast from Thursday into Friday morning. The associated heavy rain
will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. In addition to the possibility of
isolated flash flooding, the potential also exists for severe
thunderstorms in the warm sector of the system, leading to a Marginal Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms issued by the Storm Prediction Center for parts of
the region tomorrow into Friday.

Elsewhere, weak onshore flow off the North Pacific will produce isolated
rain showers and potentially higher-elevation snow over parts of the
Pacific Northwest through Friday.


Russell

Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php