Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
346 AM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Oct 27 2022 - 12Z Sat Oct 29 2022

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southern Plains from Thursday into Saturday morning...

...There is a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southern Plains through Saturday morning...

... Snow for parts of the Central/Southern Rockies tapering off by
Friday...

A developing front extending from the Northern Plains to the South High
Plains will move southeastward to the Central Gulf Coast by Saturday
morning. The associated energy will produce Snow over parts of the
Central/Southern Rockies through late Thursday afternoon.

In the meantime, the energy will begin to draw moisture northward from the
Western Gulf of Mexico over the Plains destabilizing the atmosphere. The
front associated with the energy will produce showers and severe
thunderstorms over central Texas. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southern Plains through
Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes.

The showers and thunderstorms may produce heavy rain over the Southern
Plains. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive
rainfall over parts of the Southern Plains through Friday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

On Friday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall moves
to the eastern portion of the Southern Plains/Western Gulf Coast.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
parts of the Western Gulf Coast from Friday into Saturday morning. The
hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.

Likewise, the excessive rainfall threat moves to eastern Texas. Therefore,
the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
eastern portion of the Southern Plains from Friday into Saturday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Meanwhile, weak onshore flow off the North Pacific will develop rain and
some higher-elevation snow over parts of the Pacific Northwest through
Friday. On Friday, the rain will move southward from being primarily in
Washington State into Oregon. Some rain will linger over parts of
northwestern Washington State into Saturday.

Ziegenfelder


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php