Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
308 PM EDT Thu Oct 27 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Oct 28 2022 - 00Z Sun Oct 30 2022

...Severe thunderstorms and isolated flash flooding possible across parts
of the southern Plains tonight and southeast Texas on Friday...

...Approaching frontal boundary to spread rain and high elevation snow
chances throughout the Pacific Northwest...

A closed upper-level low swinging over the southern Rockies this afternoon
is expected to reach the southern High Plains tonight and aid in producing
unsettled weather for the region. First, gusty winds and high elevation
snow are possible throughout parts of New Mexico and southern Colorado
this evening. Winter Weather Advisories and Wind Advisories have been
issued. As the system enters West Texas tonight, numerous showers and
thunderstorms are expected to develop along and ahead of a cold front from
the Texas Panhandle to the Edwards Plateau. A few storms may contain large
hail and isolated damaging wind gusts. A Slight Risk (level 2/5) of severe
weather is in effect for this area through early Friday. As the
upper-level low progresses eastward to end the workweek, increasing
atmospheric moisture content will allow for the potential of heavy rain to
extend towards southeast Texas on Friday. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of
Excessive Rainfall extends from the Dallas-Fort Worth metro region to the
western Gulf Coast. Since much of the region has experienced a relatively
dry last 30 days and with moderate to exceptional drought, any flash
flooding should remain localized and most likely near urban areas. Storms
could also turn severe as the approaching cold front interacts with a warm
and moist airmass entering from the western Gulf of Mexico, as highlighted
by a Slight Risk of of severe weather centered over the Middle/Upper Texas
Coast. By Saturday, the storm system will continue progressing eastward
and into the Lower Mississippi Valley and central Gulf Coast. Similarly,
an isolated chance for flash flooding and severe thunderstorms is
anticipated for the impacted areas.

Meanwhile, the only other area expected to see widespread precipitation
through early this weekend is the Pacific Northwest. A cold front entering
from the northeast Pacific will focus moderate rainfall and high elevation
snow across the Olympic Peninsula and northern Cascades through early
Friday. As the front pushes farther southward, moisture and showers are
expected to weaken, with only light amounts reaching western Oregon into
the weekend.

Elsewhere, the majority of the Lower 48 should enjoy tranquil weather
conditions as strong high pressure sets up over the Intermountain West and
Northeast. Above average high temperatures are forecast to span the
Northern Tier from the Plains to New England, with highs into the 50s and
60s through the final weekend of October.

Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php