Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
358 AM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Oct 28 2022 - 12Z Sun Oct 30 2022

...A low pressure system will bring a quick round heavy rain and possibly
severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains into the lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley during the next couple of days...

...Approaching frontal system will spread rain and high elevation snow
into the Pacific Northwest...

A low pressure system currently developing over the southern High Plains
will be the main weather maker across the South through the next couple of
days.  The associated compact upper-level low will help trigger organized
bands of heavy rain and thunderstorms as they swing across much of Texas
today.  Much of the region has experienced a relatively dry last 30 days
and with moderate to exceptional drought.  Since the system is forecast to
move across the area steadily and relatively quickly, any flash flooding
should remain localized and most likely near urban areas.  Thunderstorms
that form ahead of a sharpening cold front could turn severe especially
later today across southeastern Texas.  By Saturday, much of the active
weather will move into the lower Mississippi Valley where severe
thunderstorms are possible.  An area of moderate to heavy rain with
embedded thunderstorms is also anticipated farther north ahead of the low
pressure center.  The low center is forecast to begin tracking
northeastward on Saturday and approach the mid-Mississippi Valley by
Sunday morning with a round of moderate to locally heavy rain and embedded
thunderstorms.

Meanwhile, the only other area expected to see widespread precipitation
through early this weekend is the Pacific Northwest.  A cold front
entering from the northeast Pacific will focus moderate rainfall and high
elevation snow across the Olympic Peninsula and northern Cascades through
this morning.  As the front pushes farther southward, showers are expected
to gradually taper off across western Oregon by tonight.  The next round
of rain is forecast to reach northwestern Washington by Sunday morning.

Elsewhere, the majority of the U.S. mainland should enjoy tranquil weather
conditions as a couple of strong high pressure systems dominate the
Intermountain West as well as the Northeast.  Above average high
temperatures are forecast to span the Northern Tier from the Plains to New
England, with highs into the 50s and 60s through the final weekend of
October.

Kong/Snell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php