Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Fri Oct 28 2022

Valid 00Z Sat Oct 29 2022 - 00Z Mon Oct 31 2022

...A low pressure system will bring a quick round heavy rain and possibly
severe thunderstorms across the southern Plains into the lower to
mid-Mississippi Valley during the next couple of days...

...Approaching frontal system will spread rain and high elevation snow
into the Pacific Northwest...

...Tranquil weather this weekend across much of the country as high
pressure dominates...

The main weather story this weekend will be the progression of a
low-pressure system tracking through the southern tier of the country,
producing beneficial rains for areas such as the Southern Plains, lower
Mississippi Valley, and Southeast, where moderate to severe drought has
been ongoing. A widespread 1-2" of rainfall, with locally higher amounts,
is forecast through the end of the weekend along a broad stripe ranging
from eastern Texas through the Gulf Coast and into the Tennessee Valley.
Areas of heavy rainfall associated with developing bands of showers and
thunderstorms could trigger isolated flash flooding. However, the threat
will be marginal due to the progressive nature of this system. Much of the
active weather will shift into the lower Mississippi Valley tomorrow,
where severe thunderstorms are possible in the warm sector of the system
as warm, moist air advecting from the Gulf of Mexico clashes with cooler
air moving eastward behind an associated cold front. As a result, a Slight
Risk of Severe Thunderstorms has been issued by the Storm Prediction
Center for southeastern Louisiana and coastal sections of Alabama and
Mississippi. An area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms
is also anticipated farther north ahead of the low-pressure center.
Associative showers will begin to spread northward into the Ohio Valley
and interior Mid-Atlantic on Sunday as the low-pressure system tracks
northward, with the thunderstorm threat steadily decreasing as the system
moves into cooler, more stable air.

Widespread precipitation is expected this weekend across the Pacific
Northwest as a frontal system moves ashore late Saturday into Sunday in
the wake of the system that is currently pushing inland. While much of the
region is forecast to dry out this afternoon, rain chances will increase
tomorrow for lower elevations before becoming more steady tomorrow
evening. The precipitation may be heavy at times in northwestern
Washington, leading to the issuance of a Marginal Risk of Excessive
Rainfall on Sunday. High-elevation snow will also be possible across the
Olympic Peninsula and northern Cascades.

The majority of the U.S. mainland should enjoy tranquil weather conditions
this weekend as a couple of strong high-pressure systems dominate the
Intermountain West as well as the Northeast. Above-average high
temperatures are forecast to span the Northern Tier from the Plains to New
England, with highs into the 50s and 60s through the final weekend of
October.

Russell/Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php