Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 AM EDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 03 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 05 2022

...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today
into early Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead
of and along a potent cold front...

...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow
across the Pacific Northwest...

An active end to the work week is in store for much of the country as a
highly amplified upper-level trough swings eastward and triggers
multitudinous weather hazards for areas west of the Mississippi River.
Much colder air associated with the upper trough continues to overspread
the western U.S. this Thursday morning in the wake of a potent,
eastward-progressing cold front.  As snow across the Sierra Nevada and
northern Rockies gradually tapers off today, a low pressure system is
forecast to develop over the central High Plains.  Snow associated
with this system will overspread much of the central Rockies today
together with increasingly gusty winds.  Some of the snow will spread into
the nearby northern to central High Plains today and Friday.  Strong and
gusty winds from the north will also add to the wintry feel in these area
in stark contrast to the warm and dry weather in recent days.

As the strong front moves east into the central and southern Plains during
the next couple of days, showers and potentially severe thunderstorms are
expected to erupt across the southern Plains especially on Friday
as moist air surging northward from the Gulf clashes with the cooler,
drier air behind a dry line and the potent front.  In addition to the
severe threat, anomalously moist air in conjunction with developing
showers and thunderstorms along the cold front could lead to heavy
rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding across the
Mississippi Valley and central Plains on Friday, where a Slight Risk of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the Ark-La-Tex region.  By early on
Saturday, an intensifying low pressure system is forecast to move toward
the upper Midwest with a band of strong thunderstorms extending down the
Mississippi Valley along the cold front as well as another band of
enhanced rainfall with possibly strong thunderstorms extending up across
the upper Midwest ahead of a warm front.  Colder air wrapping behind the
intensifying low could change the rain to snow across the western portion
of the upper Midwest.

Ahead of the cold front, warmer-than-average temperatures will persist
across the eastern two-thirds of the country under the influence of an
expansive high-pressure system centered over the Northeast.  Widespread
high temperatures nearing record levels are forecast today across the 
Midwest, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s (15-25 degrees above
average) under a dry and steady southerly flow.

Meanwhile, the next moisture surge from the Pacific is forecast to reach
the Pacific Northwest later today, with mountain snow and lower-elevation
rain rapidly overspreading the area.  Rainfall amounts of 2-6" are possible
across the region, which, in unison with the recent rainfall, may lead to
isolated instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with elevation.
In contrast, mild and pleasant autumn weather is forecast for the eastern
U.S. under the expansive high-pressure system.  The exception will be
along the southern Atlantic coast where a long fetch of easterly flow will
keep clouds and light rain around through the next couple of days.


Kong/Russell


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php