Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
332 PM EDT Thu Nov 03 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 04 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 06 2022

...Moderate to heavy mountain snow moving across the central Rockies today
into early Friday...

...Severe thunderstorms likely across the southern Plains on Friday ahead
of and along a potent cold front...

...Above-average temperatures across northern Plains and Midwest today;
spreading eastward this weekend...

...Atmospheric River will bring widespread rain and high-elevation snow
across the Pacific Northwest...


A highly amplified upper-level trough continues to swing eastward across
the Intermountain West, triggering multitudinous weather hazards for areas
west of the Mississippi River. Colder air associated with the upper trough
continues to overspread the western U.S. today in the wake of a potent,
eastward-progressing cold front. As snow across the Sierra Nevada and
northern Rockies gradually tapers off today, a low-pressure system is
forecast to develop over the central High Plains today. Snow associated
with this system will overspread much of the central Rockies today in
addition to increasingly gusty winds. Snow will spread into the nearby
northern to central High Plains today and Friday, with strong and gusty
winds from the north adding to the wintry feel in these areas. A drastic
change from the warm and dry weather in recent days. Conditions will
improve late tonight as the system moves eastward, leading to a pleasant,
albeit cold, start to the weekend for central and western portions of the
Intermountain West.

As the strong storm system ejects eastward into the central and southern
Plains today, hazardous weather will occur along and ahead of the
progressing cold front and dry line as warm, moist air surging northward
from the Gulf clashes with the cooler, drier air. As a result, showers and
potentially severe thunderstorms may develop across the central Plains
before the threat shifts further east on Friday into eastern Texas and
Oklahoma. As a result, the Storm Prediction Center has placed portions of
the region under a Slight Risk of Severe Thunderstorms today and an
Enhanced Risk tomorrow, due to the potential for damaging winds, hail, and
isolated tornadoes. In addition to the severe threat, anomalously moist
air in conjunction with developing showers and thunderstorms along the
slow-moving cold front may lead to prolonged moderate to, at times, heavy
rainfall rates and isolated instances of flash flooding across the
Mississippi Valley and central Plains on Friday. Therefore, a Slight Risk
of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for the Ark-La-Tex region.

By early on Saturday, the intensifying low-pressure system is forecast to
move toward the upper Midwest with a band of showers and thunderstorms
extending down the Mississippi Valley along the cold front as well as
another band of enhanced rainfall with possibly strong thunderstorms
extending up across the upper Midwest ahead of a warm front. Colder air
wrapping behind the intensifying low could change the rain to snow across
the western portion of the upper Midwest. The cold front is forecast to
become more diffuse Saturday afternoon as it progresses into the Ohio
Valley and Southeast, with the potential for strong thunderstorms and
moderate to heavy rainfall rates decreasing as the frontal convergence
weakens.

Further east, ahead of the cold front, warmer-than-average temperatures
will persist across the eastern two-thirds of the country under the
influence of an expansive high-pressure system centered over the
Northeast. Widespread above-average temperatures are forecast today across
the northern Plains and Midwest, with temperatures in the mid-to-upper 70s
(15-25 degrees above average) due to a dry, southerly flow. As the high
pressure continues pushing east the warm air will shift eastward into the
Southeast and Northeast this weekend, leading to delightful weather for
outdoor activities.

The next storm system will make its way onshore in the Pacific Northwest
this evening, with mountain snow and lower-elevation rain rapidly
overspreading the area. Rainfall amounts of 2-6" are possible across the
region, which, in unison with the recent rainfall, may lead to isolated
instances of flash flooding, especially in areas with elevation.
Precipitation will spread inland on Friday and Saturday as the system
emerges from the northern Rockies and intensifies, leading to increasingly
gusty winds and infiltrating cooler air in its wake.


Russell/Kong


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php