Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
359 AM EDT Fri Nov 04 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 04 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 06 2022

...Severe thunderstorms likely Today across parts of the Southern Plains
and Lower Mississippi Valley...

...Atmospheric river to bring widespread rain and high elevation snow to
the Pacific Northwest through early Saturday...

...Moderate to Heavy mountain snow Today and Saturday across the northern
and central Rockies...

...Above average temperatures across the eastern U.S. through the
weekend...

A deep upper level trough will drive strong cold front east across the
southern Plains towards the Mississippi Valley. Conditions will be
favorable for severe thunderstorm development ahead of and along the front
with ample moisture, instability, and wind shear. The Storm Prediction
Center has issued an Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms (level 3/5) for
portions of northern and eastern Texas, eastern Oklahoma, southwest
Arkansas and western Louisiana. The Enhanced Risk area is embedded in a a
larger Slight Risk (level 2/5) area that stretched from the
Texas/Louisiana Gulf coast to the northern Oklahoma/Arkansas borders. The
main storm hazards will be tornadoes, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall.
Several tornadoes will be possible with the highest tornado potential in
the afternoon and early evening. Damaging winds are expected as a line of
storms that will move through the risk area tonight. Heavy rainfall could
lead to localized flash flooding, and there is a Slight Risk of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) in effect for for portions of northeastern Texas,
western Arkansas, and eastern Oklahoma. Severe potential will decrease on
Saturday as the frontal system weakens while pushing into the eastern U.S.

The Pacific Northwest will also be dealing with heavy precipitation today.
A atmospheric river has set up over the region and will continue to funnel
moisture onshore today. Widespread rainfall is expected a lower elevations
while mixed precipitation and snow are expected at mid and high
elevations. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) in
effect for portions of western Washington and northwestern Oregon where
additional rainfall could cause flash flooding. Heavy mountain snow could
also be possible in higher elevations of the Cascade mountains. The
atmospheric river will shift south on Saturday as a cold front moves
southeast across the area and flood threats will diminish across the
region.

Moisture will spread past the Pacific Northwest over the northern/central
Rockies and High Plains today, and mixed precipitation and snow will be
possible. Heavy mountain snow will be possible at high elevations. Wintry
precipitation is expected to continue through Saturday into early Sunday
due to the aforementioned cold front moving southeast across the
northwestern U.S. Cold air and gusty winds will accompany this system, and
temperatures will drop to 15-20 degrees below normal across the northern
High Plains by Sunday.

Southerly flow ahead of the potent cold front moving across the Central
U.S. today will push temperatures above average across much of the eastern
U.S. The cold front will weaken by the time it makes it into the eastern
U.S. and above average temperatures will continue through the weekend with
highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Overnight lows will be above average
and mild as well in the 50s and 60s.

Dolan


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php