Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
327 AM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Valid 12Z Mon Nov 07 2022 - 12Z Wed Nov 09 2022

...Moderate to Heavy coastal rain and mountain snow expected across the
West...

...Above normal temperatures continue in the East today, cooler air
expands across the West...

Calm weather is expected in the eastern U.S. through the short term
period. The lingering cold front along the East Coast is expected to
finally push offshore of the Northeast today while the tail lingers over
the Southeast and South. The frontal boundary has significantly weakened
with little to no impacts expected other than a chance of showers and
thunderstorms in the South. A strong high pressure ridge will build over
the eastern U.S. today and Tuesday, which will cause the remaining portion
of the boundary to dissipate.

In contrast to the calm in the East, unsettled weather will continue
across the West. A low pressure system will slowly slide down the coast,
continually pushing moisture over the region. Moderate to heavy rainfall
is expected over coastal and low elevation areas and moderate to heavy
mountain snow is expected over mid and high elevation areas. Anomalous
moisture will result in efficient rain rates that could lead to isolated
flash flooding in some areas. There is a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
(level 2/4) in effect for portions of southwestern California on Tuesday
where flash flooding may occur, especially near steep terrain. While low
pressure remains along the coast a series of cold fronts will move across
the western U.S. and cause widespread winter weather at mid and high
elevations. Heavy mountain snow is expected at higher elevations in the
western mountains each day. A strong cold front will push out of the west
into the northern and central Plains Tuesday into Wednesday, spreading
winter weather into the Plains. Ahead of this front, breezy and dry
conditions will result in Elevated fire weather conditions for portions of
the Dakotas and Nebraska today.

Temperatures will drop in the West behind the cold fronts, and below
normal temperatures are expected to continue through the week. High
temperatures are forecast to reach 15-25 degrees below normal in some
areas with the highest departures from normal expected in portions of
Montana. Southerly flow across the Central U.S. ahead of the emerging
frontal system will result in above normal temperatures for much of the
region on Wednesday, but the region will cool post frontal passage later
this week. Above normal temperatures are also expected to continue in the
East today with highs in the upper 60s to lower 80s. Temperatures in the
East will return to seasonable values Tuesday and Wednesday.

Near the end of the short term period, a tropical system will approach the
Southeast from the Atlantic and could impact Florida and portions of the
Southeast later this week.


Dolan


Graphics are available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php