Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Nov 07 2022

Valid 00Z Tue Nov 08 2022 - 00Z Thu Nov 10 2022

...Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding likely across parts of
southern California on Tuesday...

...Heavy mountain snow to continue impacting the Sierra Nevada,
Intermountain West, and northern Rockies through midweek...

...Subtropical Storm Nicole to begin producing coastal impacts late
Tuesday across eastern Florida as the center of the storm approaches
southeast Florida Wednesday night...


A deep upper-level low churning over the West Coast will continue aiding
in an influx of moisture extending from the eastern Pacific through the
Intermountain West through the next few days. A particularly intense surge
of moisture on Tuesday is forecast to produce more widespread heavy rain
along the central/southern California coasts and nearby mountain ranges.
Several inches of rain across the Transverse Ranges may lead to more
widespread instances of flash flooding, with areas near and within recent
burn scars most as risk. Urban regions could also experience downpours
capable of producing rapid runoff and ponding water on roadways.
Meanwhile, higher elevations along the Sierra will also see plentiful
moisture associated with the strong southwest flow. Precipiation will fall
as snow in these higher elevations, with upwards of over 3 to 4 feet
across southern parts of the Sierra Nevada. Winter Storm Warnings have
been issued to further highlight the threat of extreme winter conditions.
Farther inland, moderate to heavy rain is possible across parts of the
central Great Basin, with heavy snow in the higher terrain. This stream of
atmospheric moisture will also continue to flow along a cold front and
into the northern Rockies through midweek as well. Heavy mountain snow is
forecast to extend from central Nevada and Utah to the Yellowstone region
of southern Montana, western Wyoming, and eastern Idaho.

Farther east and into the northern Plains and Upper Midwest, a lifting
warm front will spark numerous showers and thunderstorms beginning Tuesday
night from central Minnesota to the shores of Lake Superior. As multiple
rounds of storms pass over similar areas, a few isolated flash floods
cannot be ruled out. It is also along this boundary where a rapidly
developing low pressure system may lead to blizzard conditions across the
northern Plains on Thursday.

Florida and the Southeast coastline are expected to contend with impacts
associated currently named Subtropical Storm Nicole as early as late
Tuesday. A very large wind field surrounding Nicole aided by a strong high
pressure system over the Great Lakes and eventually the Northeast by
Wednesday will funnel strong east-northeast winds into the Atlantic
coastline of Florida and the Southeast. Combined with astronomical high
tide, coastal flooding and rough surf is expected to be a widespread
concern for these regions. Impacts more associated with the center of
Nicole are expected to near southeast Florida Wednesday morning with
strong winds and heavy rain.

As far as the temperature outlook for the Nation over the next few days.
Well above average temperatures with highs into the 70s and 80s are
forecast across much of the central U.S., extending into the Midwest on
Wednesday. Conversely, frigid conditions are expected throughout the
northern High Plains of Montana and parts of the northern Great Basin. An
arctic airmass nosing southward from western Canada will spread widespread
subfreezing highs into the region, with lows below zero across northwest
Montana.

Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php