Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
304 AM EST Wed Nov 09 2022

Valid 12Z Wed Nov 09 2022 - 12Z Fri Nov 11 2022

...Heavy mountain snow today for the Sierra Nevada, Intermountain West,
and northern Rockies...

...Major winter storm impacts possible for portions of the northern Plains
and Upper Mississippi Valley today through Thursday...

...Tropical Cyclone Nicole forecast to bring hurricane conditions to
portions of the Southeast coast and east-central Florida late today or
tonight...

Today, active weather is forecast once again across the West and will
spread into the northern High Plains as a low pressure system deepens over
the Great Basin and moves east. Precipitation associated with the system
will focus over the Sierra Nevada, Intermountain West, and northern
Rockies today, and heavy mountain snow will be possible at higher
elevations. Widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather Advisories
are in effect for these areas. On the southern side of the system, gusty
winds, low humidity and dry fuels just west of a north-south oriented dry
line will combine to produce increased fire danger in eastern Colorado,
and the Storm Prediction Center has highlighted an area of Critical fire
weather conditions. Rapid wildfire spread will be possible, and those in
the affected area should listen to local officials for fire safety
information.

Late today into Thursday, wintry precipitation will spread into the
northern Plains and Upper Mississippi Valley as the system progresses. A
swath of heavy snow, and a corridor of sleet and freezing rain south of
the axis of heavy snow, are likely to impact these areas late today
through Friday. Significant snowfall accumulations will be possible in
some areas, and strong gusty winds combined with heavy snow could produce
blizzard conditions across the Dakotas. Winter Storm Watches are in effect
for much of the Dakotas and northern Minnesota. Some uncertainty remains
regarding the exact timing and location of the storm track, which could
significantly influence the expected impacts.

After bringing a taste of winter to the northern central U.S., the low
pressure center will track into Canada and pull a strong cold front
towards the eastern U.S. Cold, arctic air will filter in from the north
behind the system as high pressure builds over southern Canada and the
northern Rockies. Below normal temperatures will spread from west to east
through the week in the wake of the front, spreading over nearly the
entire CONUS this weekend. The coldest temperatures are expected to impact
portions on Montana today with highs in the teens and lows below zero.
Sub-freezing lows will be common across the West late this week through
the weekend.

Tropical cyclone Nicole continues to approach the Florida peninsula and is
forecast to strengthen to a hurricane before making landfall along the
Florida east coast. After landfall, the center of the storm is forecast to
track northwest across Florida before curving northeast and moving up
along the East Coast by this weekend. Tropical impacts and hazards will
spread far outside of the forecast cone produced by the National Hurricane
Center. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin early today for
much of Florida and coastal Georgia and Hurricane conditions are expected
for portions of the Southeast coast and east-central Florida beginning
late today or tonight. Tropical Storm Warnings and Hurricane Warnings are
in effect for these impact areas. Storm surge and damaging waves are
expected for coastal areas from south Florida to southern South Carolina
and could be particularly dangerous for in Florida and Georgia. Heavy
rainfall is expected today and Thursday across the Florida peninsula, and
flash flooding and river flooding, especially along the St. Johns River,
are likely. Heavy rainfall will spread northwards into the Southeast late
Thursday through Saturday. In addition to strong winds, surge, and heavy
rainfall, a few tornadoes will be possible in Florida today and eastern
Georgia and South Carolina Thursday. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest
information regarding Nicole.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php