Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
319 AM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 10 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 12 2022

...Tropical Cyclone Nicole will continue impacting Florida, Georgia, and
South Carolina today, impacts will spread north Friday into the weekend...

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions possible in the northern High
Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday...

...Strong cold front to spread below normal temperatures across most of
the nation by the end of the weekend...

Tropical cyclone Nicole made landfall early this morning just south of
Vero Beach on the Florida east coast. The system is forecast to track
northwest across Florida today, then curve northeast overnight and track
along the Appalachians towards the Mid-Atlantic region on Friday. Tropical
hazards will impact areas far outside the forecast cone produced by the
National Hurricane Center, and impacts are expected for much of the
Southeast. Tropical storm conditions will continue for Florida, Georgia,
and South Carolina within the warning areas today. Increased waves and
storm surge are expected along the east coast from south Florida to
southern North Carolina and along the west coast of Florida. Marine and
beach conditions will be especially dangerous for Florida and coastal
Georgia. Heavy rainfall will continue today across the Florida peninsula
and will likely result in flash, urban, and river flooding. Heavy rainfall
will spread northwards Friday into Saturday, and isolated flash, urban,
and small stream flooding will be possible on Friday in the Southeast
through the southern and central Appalachians, including the Blue Ridge
Mountains, and extending northward through west-central Pennsylvania into
western New York by Friday night into Saturday. In addition to damaging
winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall, there will be the potential for
several tornadoes north and east of the cyclone's center from central
Florida to the Carolinas. See nhc.noaa.gov for the latest information
regarding Nicole.

While Nicole reminds us we are still in Hurricane Season, it will feel
more like the winter season in the northern central U.S. as a deepening
low pressure system brings winter storm conditions to the region. Heavy
snow, as well as sleet and freezing rain, will impact the northern High
Plains, Great Plains, and Upper Mississippi Valley today into Friday.
Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2"/hr are possible today from the Dakotas
eastward into northwestern Minnesota. Gusty winds combined with heavy snow
could produce blizzard conditions at times. Total snowfall will likely
exceed 12" in some locations. Blizzard Warnings, Ice Storm Warnings, and
Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for the Dakotas, northwestern
Minnesota, and eastern Montana. Ahead of the low pressure system, isolated
severe thunderstorms will be possible across portions of the Upper Midwest
today where the Storm Prediction Center has issued a Marginal Risk of
severe thunderstorms (level 1/5). Damaging winds and a brief tornado will
be possible.

The low pressure system will continue to move north-northeast through the
end of the week and pull a strong cold front towards the east coast this
weekend. Cold, arctic air will move in from the north as strong high
pressure builds behind the front and below normal temperatures are
forecast to spread across most of the nation by Sunday. The coldest
temperatures are expected in the northern Plains today and Friday, high
temperatures are forecast to only reach the teens and lower 20s and low
temperatures are forecast to drop into the single digits.


Dolan


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php