Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
316 PM EST Thu Nov 10 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 11 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 13 2022

...Tropical Cyclone NICOLE will slowly weaken and move northward, becoming
Post-Tropical by Friday evening...

...Heavy snow is to begin to wind down over the Upper Midwest on Friday...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast through Saturday morning...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Southeast on Thursday, moving to the Northeast on Friday...

Tropical Cyclone NICOLE will slowly weaken and move northward, becoming
Post-Tropical by Friday evening over the Southern Appalachians. However,
the storm will produce heavy rain, strong wind, severe weather, and storm
surge overnight Thursday into Friday.

Nicole will produce heavy rainfall across the Florida Peninsula. As a
result, flash and urban flooding will be possible across portions of the
Florida Peninsula, along with renewed river flooding on the St. Johns
River. Isolated flash, urban, and small stream flooding will also be
possible on Friday in the Southeast through the Central Appalachians,
including the Blue Ridge Mountains, and extending northward through
eastern Ohio, west-central Pennsylvania, into western New York by Friday
night into Saturday.

Due to the threat of severe weather, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of
severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast Coast through Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are some
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail. Furthermore, due to the heavy rain associated with NICOLE,
the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over the Southeast
through Friday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable.

On Friday, as NICOLE moves northward, the threat of severe weather and
excessive rainfall moves northward. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight
Risk of severe thunderstorms from parts of the Mid-Atlantic from Friday
into Saturday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are
frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a
minimal threat of hail.

Additionally, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
the Northeast/Ohio Valley and the Central/Southern Appalachians from
Friday to Saturday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly
localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small
streams the most vulnerable. On Saturday, the threat of severe weather and
excessive rainfall weakens significantly and moves northward to New
England.

Meanwhile, heavy snow over the Northern Plains will start to weaken from
overnight Thursday into Friday. Lighter amounts of snow will fall over the
Upper Great Lakes on Friday into Saturday morning. The ongoing winter
storm will continue to produce heavy snow and an area of sleet and
freezing rain over portions of North Dakota and northern Minnesota through
early Friday. Heavy snowfall rates of 1-2 inches per hour are possible
this evening from northeastern North Dakota into northwestern Minnesota.
Total snowfall will exceed 12 inches in some areas. Blizzard conditions
across portions of North Dakota and northwestern Minnesota will continue
overnight due to strong winds and reduced visibility from blowing snow.
Travel may be dangerous in some areas and scattered power outages are
possible. Additional freezing rain and sleet to the south of the heaviest
snow may produce areas of icing. Snow, freezing rain, and sleet may result
in areas of hazardous travel and some disruptions to infrastructure.
Strong northeasterly winds over western Lake Superior may lead to
hazardous waves.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php