Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
238 AM EST Thu Nov 17 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 17 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 19 2022

...Major lake effect snow event downwind of the Great Lakes through the
weekend...

...Anomalous cold will continue for most of the CONUS through the end of
the week...

...Tranquil weather across the West Coast this weekend...


On the heels of a potent coastal low that produced widespread
precipitation across the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast, a significant
lake-effect snow event is taking shape downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario.
Cold, northwesterly flow blowing across the length of the anomalously warm
lake water will produce lake-effect snow bands with snowfall rates
exceeding 2"/hr. One such band has already developed on the southern shore
of Lake Erie, where several inches of snow have fallen, with more expected
through the Thursday morning hours before the band pushes south and
dissipates. Late Thursday evening, more organized and near-stationary
bands of snow will develop downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario, persisting
through the weekend and dumping several feet of snow in areas where the
band lingers the longest. While the heaviest accumulations will remain
highly localized, current forecasts suggest the Buffalo, NY metropolitan
area will receive the most intense and prolonged snowfall, while a more
broad area of 6-12" will encompass locations east and southeast of the
Lakes Erie and Ontario. As a result of the potentially paralyzing event,
Lake Effect Snow Warnings are in effect downwind of the aforementioned
lakes, as areas within these snow bands will experience visibility
dropping to near zero at times and covered roadways that will make travel
extremely hazardous, if not impossible. Due to the localized nature of
this event, total snowfall accumulations will be highly dependent on where
snow bands develop and could shift significantly with changes in wind
direction.

Outside the Great Lakes, a southward progressing cold front across the
northern Great Plains is forecast to bring a reinforcing shot of arctic
air into nearly the entirety of the lower 48 this weekend. Behind the
front, high temperatures are forecast to be 15-25 degrees below normal
across the Plains, with maximum temperatures struggling to reach freezing
in areas as far south as the Texas panhandle on Friday. The cold air will
continue to push southeastward on Saturday, with high temperatures in the
30s and low 40s across the Ohio Valley and Northeast. In addition to the
cold, arctic air, this front will bring a chance of snow to the Great
Plains, with heavy snow possible in the northern and central Rockies and
nearby High Plains through Thursday evening, resulting in the issuance of
widespread Winter Weather Advisories.

Elsewhere, tranquil weather is forecast to continue across the West Coast,
as strong high-pressure building into the region this weekend will limit
precipitation chances. Furthermore, the Santa Ana winds across southern
California have begun to subside, with the High Wind Warnings and Wind
Advisories covering the Transverse Ranges set to expire early Thursday
morning.


Russell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php