Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
247 AM EST Fri Nov 18 2022

Valid 12Z Fri Nov 18 2022 - 12Z Sun Nov 20 2022

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes...

...Bitter cold from Rockies to Great Lakes...

A heavy lake effect snow event is underway across downwind areas of the
Great Lakes. Northwesterly winds on the backside of a cold front will
support the continued cold air advection over relatively warm lake waters,
thus generating heavy snow. East of Lakes Erie and Ontario, snowfall will
at times be accompanied by lightning, gusty winds, and rates of 3"+/hr.
This will produce near zero visibility, nearly impossible travel, damage
to infrastructure, and paralyze the hardest-hit communities. Additional
accumulations of 2-3 feet of snow are expected downwind of lakes Erie and
Ontario while 8-12" are likely downwind of the other 3 lakes by Sunday
morning. Historic snowfall exceeding 4 feet is likely around Buffalo, NY.
Very cold air will accompany this event with temperatures 20 degrees below
normal forecast by this weekend. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter Weather
Advisories are in effect for portions of the Upper Peninsula of Michigan
and areas downwind of Lake Michigan, while Lake Effect Snow Warnings are
in effect for the Buffalo area and downwind areas of Lake Ontario.

Bitter cold over the Plains and Midwest shifts into Southern Plains and
eastern third of the country this weekend before temperatures moderate a
bit over the Northern/Central Plains on Sunday. Wind Chill advisories are
in effect for parts of the Northern/Central Plains today due to wind gusts
between 25-35mph dropping temperatures into the negative digits. Rain
showers and isolated thunderstorms are possible across the Texas/Central
Gulf Coast this weekend. A stationary front draped across the Bahamas and
the Straits of Florida will become the focus for scattered thunderstorm
activity over Southern Florida this weekend.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php