Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
211 AM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Nov 19 2022 - 12Z Mon Nov 21 2022

...Heavy lake effect snow downwind of the Great Lakes...

...Anomalous cold for South and East; Elevated fire risk for Southern
California...

Periods of heavy lake effect snow will persist through Sunday downwind of
each of the Great Lakes. East of Lakes Erie and Ontario, snowfall will at
times be accompanied by lightning, gusty winds, and rates of 3"+/hr. This
will produce near zero visibility, very difficult to impossible travel,
damage to infrastructure, and may paralyze the hardest-hit communities.
Across parts of the Upper Peninsula and western Lower Peninsula of
Michigan, snowfall rates will reach 1-2"/hr and combine with gusty winds
to produce near-zero visibility and dangerous travel. Total snow amounts
of 1-2 feet are expected in many locations, reaching 2-3 feet east of
Lakes Erie and Ontario. Historic snowfall exceeding 4 feet is likely
around Buffalo, NY. Very cold air will accompany this event, with
temperatures forecast to be 20 degrees below normal across parts of the
region this weekend.

Surface high pressure will expand across the Southern Plains this weekend,
bringing anomalously cold air to the region through early next week. Cold
air will shift from the Midwest today into the eastern third of the
country on Sunday before a warming trend kicks off across the CONUS on
Monday. Meanwhile, a shortwave trough will glide into the Southern Plains
from the Southwest. Upper-level energy downstream from the shortwave will
draw up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and focus it along the Texas
coast through tonight. Scattered to isolated thunderstorm activity is
possible as a result. The greatest rainfall threat will remain offshore
over the Gulf. A stationary front draped between Florida and Cuba will
focus scattered thunderstorms over south Florida through the weekend.
Gusty winds and dry conditions will support an elevated fire-weather
threat during the daytime hours in Southern California. Red Flag warnings
and High Wind Warnings are also in effect for this region. Air Stagnation
Advisories are in effect for this weekend over portions of the Pacific
Northwest due to calm winds and an atmospheric inversion.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php