Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 PM EST Sat Nov 19 2022

Valid 00Z Sun Nov 20 2022 - 00Z Tue Nov 22 2022

...Heavy lake effect/lake-enhanced snow downwind from the Great Lakes
winds down by Sunday...

...Temperatures will be 10 to 30 degrees below average from the Great
Lakes/Northeast to the Southern High Plains...

...There are Winter Storm Warnings, Winter Weather Advisories, and Lake
Effect Snow Warnings snow downwind from the Great Lakes through Sunday...

...Freezing drizzle over the Guadalupe and Davis Mountains through
Saturday night...

Upper-level energy and associated front over the Great Lakes/Ohio Valley
will dissipate on Sunday afternoon over parts of the Lower Great
Lakes/Northeast as another front develops offshore over the Western
Atlantic. The ongoing heavy lake effect/lake-enhanced snow will persist
through Sunday downwind from each of the Great Lakes.

Periods of heavy lake effect/lake-enhanced snow will persist through
tonight downwind of Lakes Superior and Michigan and through Sunday night
downwind of Lakes Erie and Ontario. East of Lakes Erie and Ontario, heavy
snow lifting north today will shift back south tonight, though generally
south of the heaviest band that persisted through Friday. Snowfall rates
of 2-3 inches per hour will combine with gusty winds to produce near-zero
visibility and dangerous travel. Across much of the Michigan Upper
Peninsula and western Lower Peninsula, snowfall rates will again reach 1-2
inches per hour this afternoon and evening behind a cold front and combine
with gusty winds to produce near-zero visibility and dangerous travel.
Total snow amounts of 1-2 feet are expected in many locations, reaching
2-4 feet east of Lakes Erie and Ontario. Historic snowfall exceeding 5
feet has already occurred around Buffalo, NY. Near zero wind chills are
expected tonight into Sunday.

Cold high pressure over the Central/Southern Plains will slowly move
eastward to the Mid-Atlantic by Monday morning. The cold air associated
with the high pressure will be 10 to 30 degrees below average from the
Great Lakes/Northeast to the Southern High Plains.

Moreover, the upper-level energy over the Southwest will move eastward to
the Lower Mississippi Valley by Monday evening. The energy will produce
light snow and freezing drizzle over parts of western Texas through
Sunday. The winter weather has prompted Winter Weather Advisories over the
region through Saturday night. The energy will also produce light rain
over the Western/Central Gulf Coast through late Saturday night. In
addition, weak upper-level impulses will produce light rain and embedded
thunderstorms over parts of Florida from Sunday into Monday. Elsewhere,
Air Stagnation Advisories are in effect over portions of the Pacific
Northwest through Monday due to calm winds and an atmospheric inversion.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php