Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
228 PM EST Tue Nov 22 2022

Valid 00Z Wed Nov 23 2022 - 00Z Fri Nov 25 2022

...Rain and mountain snow possible across the northern Rockies on
Wednesday...

...Heavy rainfall to spread across parts of the southern Plains and Lower
Mississippi Valley for Thanksgiving Day...

...Potentially impactful snow could begin as early as Thursday night for
parts of the southern High Plains...


The pattern across the US will trend more active over the next couple of
days as a shortwave trough moving into the Pacific Northwest today,
amplifies as it drops through the Rockies, and slows as it reaches the
southern high Plains late Thursday. Precipitation today over the Pacific
Northwest will spread into the northern Rockies and possibly northern High
Plains tonight and Wednesday, with some light snow accumulations in the
higher terrain. Behind this, conditions should trend warmer and drier
across much of the West for Thanksgiving Day as surface high pressure
settles across the region.

Showers and thunderstorms are expected to break out by later on Wednesday
across parts of the southern Plains and Lower Mississippi valley as the
upper trough amplifies over the Rockies and moisture from the Gulf of
Mexico interacts with a front near the Gulf Coast. Moderate to heavy rain
and storms are possible for Thanksgiving Day across these regions, with
precipitation also spreading north and east throughout the day ahead of an
approaching cold front. As the upper low settles into the region on
Thursday, sufficiently cold air on the backside of the low could result in
snow for parts of northeast New Mexico through the Oklahoma panhandle
beginning on Thursday night, and possibly becoming heavier/more impactful
by Friday. Temperatures under the low itself across the the Four Corners
and parts of the southern High Plains could be 10 to 20 degrees below
normal Wednesday and Thursday.

Elsewhere, a lingering front near southern Florida will likely bring some
scattered rain to parts of the Florida panhandle on Wednesday, drying out
by Thanksgiving as the front dissipates. The eastern third of the nation
should remain rather dry and seasonable the next few days as surface high
pressure dominates the forecast.


Santorelli

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php