Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
1209 AM EST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Nov 24 2022 - 12Z Sat Nov 26 2022

...Heavy to excessive rainfall likely across the South on Thanksgiving
Day...

...Potentially impactful snow becoming increasingly likely tonight into
Friday for parts of the Southern Plains...


An upper low will cut across the Southern Plains while an upper ridge
moves into the interior West. An upper-level trough will enter the Pacific
Northwest today while another trough sweeps across the Midwest and East.

The main weather event will be the heavy rain in the Southern Plains,
Lower Mississippi Valley and Southeast beginning today as well as
impactful snowfall over portions of the Southern High Plains beginning
tonight. The upper low currently over the Southern High Plains will cut
across the region over the next couple of days. This upper low will draw
up moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and dump it over the ArkLaTex region
today before expanding across the Southern Plains and South on Friday.
Slight Risks of excessive rainfall leading to flash flooding are in effect
for portions of the central Gulf Coast today and western Gulf Coast on
Friday. Scattered thunderstorms are also likely for the Gulf Coast with
isolated severe storms possible. Light rain showers and thunderstorms will
also focus along a cold front sweeping across the Midwest and East Coast
tonight through Friday. Some light snow showers will develop on the
backside of the cold front over parts of the Lower Great Lakes on Friday.

Moderate to heavy snowfall will impact portions of eastern New Mexico and
western Texas tonight as cold air filters into the area on the backside of
the upper low bringing heavy rainfall to the Lower Mississippi Valley.
Anywhere between 4-8 inches of snow is likely for parts of the
aforementioned area tonight through Friday. Snowfall and gusty winds may
cause hazardous travel conditions. Winter Storm Watches and High Wind
Warnings are in effect for parts of eastern New Mexico and western Texas.
Warm and dry conditions in southern California will contribute to an
elevated fire weather threat today. Red Flag Warnings and High Wind
Warnings are in effect in response to this threat. Another low pressure
system will enter the Pacific Northwest on Friday bringing low elevation
rain and mountain snow to the region. Temperatures will be above average
across much of the lower 48 and below average over the Southern High
Plains.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php