Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Thu Nov 24 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Nov 25 2022 - 00Z Sun Nov 27 2022

...Heavy rainfall with the risk for scattered to numerous instances of
flash flooding in Texas Friday...

...Widespread showers and thunderstorms into the weekend from the East
Coast to the Southern Plains...

...Potentially impactful snow becoming increasingly likely tonight into
Friday for parts of the Southern High Plains...

A complex surface pattern with numerous frontal boundaries and a
developing strong storm system in the Southern Plains will be the source
of multiple weather hazards as we move further into the holiday weekend.
Multiple rounds of widespread showers and thunderstorms are forecast to
continue across Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley Friday as a wavey
stationary boundary lingers along the Gulf Coast before a stronger storm
system develops over the region Saturday. Additional rainfall totals over
an inch are likely across the region Thursday night through Saturday, with
higher amounts of 2-3 inches possible from Northwest Texas to the central
and upper Texas Gulf Coast and into Louisiana and southern Mississippi. A
Moderate Risk of Excessive Rainfall is in effect Friday for the Texas Gulf
Coast where the combination of saturated soils from rain that has already
fallen today combined with the potential of higher two-day rainfall totals
of 4+ inches could lead to scattered to numerous instances of flash
flooding. More broadly, isolated to scattered instances of flash flooding
are possible for locations in Texas Friday and the Lower Mississippi
Valley Saturday.

On the cool side of the system, significant snowfall is becoming
increasingly likely tonight through Friday for portions of the Southern
High Plains from the Sacramento and Guadalupe Mountains east into adjacent
areas of southeast New Mexico and far west Texas. Winter weather-related
advisories have been issued for snowfall totals broadly between 6-12
inches. More localized totals over a foot are likely, especially in the
higher terrain areas. Gusty winds of 30-40 mph will lead to some blowing
snow, reduced visibility, and hazardous travel conditions.

Meanwhile, further north, a cold front will move through the the Midwest
overnight Friday and through the Appalachians and East coast during the
day. Showers are likely to accompany the front but totals should generally
remain light. A wintry mix will be possible for the interior Northeast.
While temperatures will drop a bit behind the front compared to what has
been a very mild Thanksgiving Day for many, highs Friday and Saturday
should still remain around average for this time of year with upper 40s
and 50s for most. One exception will be in interior New England where the
wintry precipitation is possible, with highs remaining in the mid-30s.
Further west, a warm front will move across the Central and Northern
Plains and into the Upper Midwest bringing pleasantly above average
temperatures with it. Highs in the downslope regime of the High Plains are
forecast to reach as high as the low 60s, with 50s spreading from portions
of the Central and Northern Plains Friday into the Upper Midwest Saturday.


A Pacific storms system will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest
Friday morning and into the Northern Rockies and Great Basin overnight
Friday into Saturday. Lower elevation rain and higher elevation snow will
overspread the region behind the Pacific front as it passes through. Heavy
Snowfall is possible but should remain confined to higher mountain
locations, such as the Cascades, as temperatures at lower elevations look
to remain mild. Forecast highs Friday and Saturday will be in the 40s to
50s for the urban areas of the Pacific Northwest, upper 30s and 40s for
the interior Pacific Northwest and Great Basin, and in the 60s to low 70s
for California and the Desert Southwest.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php