Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
305 PM EST Wed Dec 14 2022

Valid 00Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 00Z Sat Dec 17 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday in
the northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Severe thunderstorms and flash flooding will continue to threaten
portions of the South and Southeast through tonight...

...Accumulating snow and freezing rain likely to impact the interior
Northeast and northern/central Appalachians Thursday into Friday...

A major storm system system was moving from the central Plains towards the
Upper Midwest this afternoon and causing widespread heavy snow and
blizzard conditions in the northern/Central Plains and wintry mixed
precipitation in the Upper Midwest. Snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour and
winds gusting to 45-60 mph in the northern/central Plains will create near
zero visibility at times, and snow will cover roads. Travel will be
extremely difficult to nearly impossible in some areas, and power outages
and harsh livestock conditions are expected. The storm will track through
the Upper Midwest on Thursday, then slow down while weakening in the Great
Lakes region late this week. Hazardous conditions are expected to continue
across the northern Plains and intensify across the Upper Midwest on
Thursday. Additional snow accumulations of 8-12 inches are expected with
locally higher amounts possible for portions of the Dakotas, Minnesota,
and Wisconsin through Thursday. The highest snow accumulations are
expected across the Minnesota arrowhead where additional snowfall could
reach 18-24+ inches. Conditions will relax on Friday as the storm system
weakens.

A strong cold front is extending from the storm system impacting the north
central U.S. and causing severe weather in the South and Southeast. The
front was stretched along the Middle and Lower Mississippi Valley this
afternoon while pushing east. Ahead of and along the front, conditions are
favorable for the development of many severe thunderstorms today. The
Storm Prediction Center has issued a broad Enhanced Risk of Severe
Thunderstorms (level 3/5) for much of the south near the northern Gulf
Coast with an embedded Moderate Risk (level 4/5) for portions of southeast
Louisiana, southern Mississippi, and western/southern Alabama. Potential
severe storm threats include tornadoes, some may be strong, and damaging
thunderstorm winds, which will continue to threaten the region through
tonight. Convection is likely to be sustained and slow moving, which will
result in heavy downpours and flash flooding. There is a Moderate Risk of
Excessive Rainfall (level 3/4) in effect from eastern Louisiana to western
Alabama through tonight where the risk of flash flooding is highest. As
the front progresses east on Friday, the severe weather threat will shift
into the Southeast. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk
of Severe Thunderstorms (level 2/5) for parts of Florida, coastal/southern
Georgia, and coastal South Carolina for Friday. Scattered severe storms
will be possible and the main threats will be a few tornadoes and damaging
thunderstorm winds.

Shifting back to the north, winter weather is expected to impact portions
of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast Thursday and Friday. The upper level low
associated with winter storm in the Plains/Upper Midwest will move east
and spawn a surface low along the east coast in the Mid-Atlantic region.
The low will track northwards along the coast through the end of the week.
Freezing rain and icy mixed precipitation are expected to begin early
Thursday morning in the northern/central Appalachians and portions of the
interior Mid-Atlantic region then expand into the interior Northeast
during the day on Thursday. Freezing rain totals between 0.1-.25 inches,
locally higher, will be possible in the Central Appalachians of western
Virginia, eastern West Virginia, the Maryland Panhandle, and
central/Western Pennsylvania. Icy precipitation could impact travel during
the morning commute along the I-95 corridor. As precipitation spreads
northwards, rain will develop across the Mid-Atlantic and snow is expected
over the interior Northeast. Snow will continue through Friday in the
interior Northeast and will be heavy at times at the higher elevations.
Precipitation will taper off over the weekend in the Northeast as the
system exits into the Atlantic.
 

Dolan

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php