Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 12Z Thu Dec 15 2022 - 12Z Sat Dec 17 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through Thursday for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Significant accumulating ice and heavy snow for the interior
Mid-Atlantic and New England Thursday into Friday...

...Heavy rain and severe weather possible with thunderstorms moving
through the Southeast and Florida Thursday...

Heavy snow and blizzard conditions persist this morning across the
Northern Tier of the central U.S. beneath a deep upper-level low as a
plume of warmer, moist air flows over colder temperatures around a low at
the surface. This low is forecast to slowly move to the northeast across
the Upper Midwest through the period. Snow will begin to taper off first
over the Northern High Plains with little additional accumulations
expected outside of the vicinity of the Black Hills. Snow is forecast to
continue into the day Thursday farther east in the Northern Plains and
Upper Midwest. Additional accumulations should be generally between 4-8
inches, with higher amounts of 8-12+ inches possible in the Red River
Valley and in the Arrowhead of Minnesota. Strong, gusty winds upwards of
50 mph will lead to blizzard conditions for the Arrowhead of Minnesota
while blowing snow will remain a concern over the High Plains even after
the snow has concluded. Snow should begin to taper off for the Upper
Midwest as well late Thursday night into Friday. There will be a wintry
mix further east over Michigan and the Lower Great Lakes with some light
snow and ice accumulations possible through Thursday evening. Snow will
linger longer and higher accumulations are expected along the eastern
shores of Lake Michigan and Lake Erie as flow turns easterly over the
lakes and lake-effect snow ramps up late Friday and continuing into
Saturday. Temperatures will remain chilly with teens and 20s for the
Northern High Plains and 20s and 30s elsewhere in the Northern/Central
Plains and Upper Midwest. Windchills below zero will continue for portions
of the Northern and Central High Plains. This colder air will flow
southward on Friday into the Southern Plains dropping temperatures from
the 40s and 50s into the 30s and 40s outside of locations closer to the
Gulf Coast. 

Rain, a wintry mix, and snow have begun to overspread the Mid-Atlantic and
Carolinas ahead of the frontal system to the west. Heavy rain near the
coast, significant freezing rain in the central/northern Appalachians, and
heavy snow for the northern Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic are
expected through Thursday as another low pressure center forms near the
coast of the Carolinas and moves up the Eastern Seaboard. Ice Storm
Warnings are in effect for far northwestern Virginia, northeastern West
Virginia, the far western Maryland Panhandle, and into south-central
Pennsylvania. Accumulations of 0.1-0.25 inches at lower elevations and
0.25 to 0.5 at higher elevations generally over 1000 feet are expected
through the day Thursday. Heavy snow totals between 6-12 inches are
forecast from central Pennsylvania north into interior Upstate New York.
Higher totals between 18-24 inches will be possible for the Catskills and
Adirondacks. Portions of central Pennsylvania are most likely to see both
accumulating ice and snow. The snow will expand into interior New England
on Friday as the low moves northward up the coast. Snow totals between
6-12 inches, with locally higher amounts upwards of 18-24 inches for
higher elevations in the Berkshires and the Green and White Mountains are
expected here as well. While the precipitation should remain mostly rain
along the I-95 corridor, some freezing rain will be possible early
Thursday morning potentially impacting the morning commute. Heavy rain
totals between 1-2 inches are forecast in the Mid-Atlantic Thursday and
into New England Friday. Highs will be near average for mid-December with
30s and 40s for New England and the northern Mid-Atlantic and 40s and 50s
for the southern Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas.

Heavy rain and severe weather will accompany ongoing thunderstorms both
ahead of and in a line along a cold front pushing through the Southeast
and Florida. The Storm Prediction Center has issued a Slight Risk of
severe weather (level 2/5) for far southeast South Carolina, Georgia, and
northern/central portions of the Florida Peninsula early Thursday as
sufficient CAPE and strong low level shear will contribute to the risk for
some damaging wind gusts and a few tornadoes. Temperatures will feel like
December behind the front across the Southeast. Highs will generally be in
the 50s with 60s closer to the immediate Gulf and Atlantic Coasts. Colder
highs in the 40s are forecast for the Mid-South and Tennessee Valley.

Snow showers will linger through Thursday morning across portions of the
Northern and Central Rockies and Northern Great Basin, with some light
accumulations expected for some of the valleys. High temperatures will
remain 10-20 degrees below average with 20s and 30s for the Northern and
Central Rockies and Great Basin, 40s for the Pacific Northwest and
Southern Rockies, and 50s and low 60s for California and the Desert
Southwest. Morning lows will be at or below freezing for portions of the
central California valleys and Desert Southwest which may cause damage to
vegetation.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php