Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
303 PM EST Thu Dec 15 2022

Valid 00Z Fri Dec 16 2022 - 00Z Sun Dec 18 2022

...Heavy snow and blizzard conditions will continue through tonight for
portions of the Northern Plains and Upper Midwest...

...Significant icing for parts of the interior Mid-Atlantic through this
evening...

...Heavy snow for parts of the interior Northeast through Friday...

The main weather story through the short term period will be the winter
weather impacting the north central CONUS and Northeast. A significant
winter storm is slowly tracking across the Upper Midwest and causing
widespread heavy snow and blizzard conditions across the northern Plains
and parts of the Upper Midwest. The system is expected to gradually move
northeast and weaken through the end of the week, and hazardous conditions
are expected to continue through at least tonight. Snowfall totals of 6-12
inches have been commonly reported across the region with some locations
reporting 1-2 feet of snow. Snowfall rates will be trending downwards
through the night, but strong gusty winds will bake blowing snow a
concern. Visibility will drop to near zero at times, making travel
difficult to near impossible. Brisk northwesterly winds on the backside of
the system will continue across the north central CONUS through Friday,
and high temperatures will remain below freezing for most of the region
with wind chills below zero.

Looking to the Northeast, precipitation ahead of an approaching low
pressure system has spread across the Mid-Atlantic and continues to move
further north into the Northeast. The low will track north along the East
Coast through Saturday, producing wintry weather. Icy mixed precipitation
is expected to continue through this evening for parts of the interior
Mid-Atlantic, mainly in the higher elevations of the Appalachians.
Elsewhere in the Mid-Atlantic, precipitation has transitioned to a cold,
soaking rain that will continue through tonight. For the interior
Northeast, precipitation tonight and Friday will fall as snow and become
heavy at times. Storm total snowfall accumulations of 6-12 inches, with
locally higher amounts of 18-24 inches, are expected for much of eastern
New York, Vermont, New Hampshire, and Maine. Closer to the coast,
precipitation will fall as rain, and rainfall totals of 1-2 inches are
expected through Saturday along the Northeastern coast. The storm system
will pull away from the region on Sunday, and precipitation will taper off
from south to north. Lake effect snowfall will likely continue through the
weekend downwind of Lakes Ontario and Superior as west-southwesterly winds
develop.

In the Southeast, a cold front continues to push across the region. The
front will move southeast while weakening through Friday and push south of
the Florida peninsula by Friday night. The front produced scattered severe
thunderstorms in the Southeast today, but severe potential will gradually
decrease tonight, and severe weather is not anticipated on Friday. In the
West, strong high pressure will dominate the weather pattern through the
end of the week, and a frontal system will slowly nudge into the region
from the north over the weekend. Inland snow and coastal rain will
accompany the frontal system, moving into the Pacific Northwest, northern
Rockies, and northern High Plains on Saturday and expanding southwards
early next week. 

Between arctic high pressure building in the West and departing low
pressure systems in the East, northwesterly winds will funnel colder air
into the CONUS. Below normal temperatures are expected to spread across
most of the nation by this weekend, followed by a blast of much below
normal temperatures in the north central CONUS early next week. High
temperatures on Sunday are forecast to be in the teens and single digits
across the northern Plains and parts of the Upper Midwest, nearly 20 to 30
degrees below normal. Highs on Sunday are forecast to be in the 30s and
40s for the intermountain west and much of the East and in the 50s and 60s
for the West Coast and the South.


Dolan

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php