Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
249 AM EST Sat Dec 17 2022

Valid 12Z Sat Dec 17 2022 - 12Z Mon Dec 19 2022

...Heavy snow continues across parts of northern New England today...

...Well below average temperatures enter the north-central U.S. by
Sunday...

...Unsettled weather returns to southeast Texas and the Lower Mississippi
Valley on Monday...

A slow-moving Nor'easter will continue to churn off the coast of New
England today and lead to heavy snowfall across much of New Hampshire and
Maine. Snow is also expected to linger into Sunday throughout much of
Maine as the low pressure system slides farther east, while upper-level
energy supports additional light snowfall. Snow totals near two feet are
possible in the Pine Tree State and could create treacherous travel
conditions. Winter Storm Warnings remain in effect. To the west, a
separate low pressure system over southern Ontario will help set up strong
west-southwesterly winds over the Lower Great Lakes. These winds combined
with cold air aloft will create an environment conducive for intense lake
effect snow bands downwind of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario. Up to two feet
of snow is possible over the Tug Hill Plateau, as well as near and just to
the south of Buffalo, New York. These snow bands are likely to be very
narrow and lead to drastically changing conditions over a short distance.
Scattered snow showers and locally moderate lake effect snow is also
possible throughout the remainder of the Great Lakes region this weekend
as an upper level low swings through and cold westerly winds move over the
relatively warm lake waters.

The other areas of notable winter weather include the northern High Plains
and Pacific Northwest thanks to an arctic cold front dropping south from
southwest Canada. Light snow and a colder temperatures are expected to
enter this afternoon. Lowering snow levels could allow for flakes to fly
in the lowlands as well, particularly after Sunday night. Bitter cold will
likely be the more widespread weather hazard for this part of the country
by Sunday and Monday (and beyond) as temperatures 20 to 30 degrees below
average filter southward. Highs will only reach into the single digits
throughout the northern Plains, while lows fall into subzero territory and
minus teens closer to the Canadian border. Gusty winds will make it feel
even colder throughout northern Montana, where Wind Chill Advisories are
in effect due to the potential for wind chills to dip as low as 30 to 45
degrees below zero. As this front reaches the central Plains on Monday and
interacts with an upper-level low ejecting out of the southern Rockies,
light snow may overspread an area from eastern Kansas to the middle
Mississippi Valley.

Farther south, a slow-moving cold front responsible for unsettled weather
over parts of Florida this weekend is anticipated to lift back north over
the western Gulf of Mexico on Monday. Showers and isolated thunderstorms
likely to overspread southeast Texas and Louisiana, making for a wet start
to the workweek.


Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php