Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Jan 01 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 01 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 03 2023

...Heavy snow and rain/freezing rain over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms and a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on
Monday...

... Snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Basin, and Central
Rockies; Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from Southern
Plains into the Ohio Valley...

A front over parts of the Great Basin/Southwest will move eastward to the
Middle Mississippi Valley by Tuesday. The system will produce snow, rain,
and freezing rain from California to the Upper Midwest. The system will
produce rain over Southern California and snow over parts of the Sierra
Nevada Mountains on New Year s Day. Snow will also develop over parts of
the Great Basin into the Central Rockies. Rain will also develop over
parts of the Southwest. Later on New Year s Day, as the front passes, the
snow levels will lower over the Southwest and snow will develop over parts
of the Southern Rockies.

An area of low pressure will bring snowfall to the Central High Plains
beginning late Sunday. This low pressure will intensify as it shifts
northeast into the Great Lakes by Tuesday, producing a swath of moderate
to heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Where precipitation remains all
snow, periods of intense snow rates exceeding 1 inch per hour, along with
some blowing snow, will create snow-covered roads and difficult travel. An
area of sleet and freezing rain is likely from eastern Nebraska through
parts of Wisconsin. The ice accretions due to freezing rain may cause
dangerous travel and isolated power outages. Furthermore, ahead of the
front over parts of the Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley, temperatures
will be 15 to 25 degrees above average.

Meanwhile, on Sunday, weak low pressure over the Upper Mississippi Valley
will move northeastward into Canada by Sunday evening. The system will
produce light snow over parts of the Upper Great Lakes into Sunday
evening. Also, light snow will develop overnight Sunday into Monday over
the higher elevations of the interior Northeast. The snow will result in
reduced visibility and hazardous driving conditions.

Moreover, overnight Sunday, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will
surge northward over the Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley. The
Western front moves onto the Plains on Monday, producing showers and
severe thunderstorms over the area on Monday morning. Therefore, the SPC
has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over the Lower
Mississippi Valley from Monday through Tuesday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will also be an
increased threat of EF2-EF5 tornados over the region.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Further, rain will develop over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and the Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

Additionally, a front over the Pacific will move onshore over California
late Monday afternoon into Tuesday. The storm will begin to produce
coastal rain on Monday afternoon over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California Coast. By late Monday afternoon, rain will move into
Central/Southern California and produce snow over parts of the Pacific
Northwest and interior Northern California. Snow will also develop over
the Sierra Nevada Mountains by Monday night into early Tuesday morning.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php