Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
259 AM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 02 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 04 2023

...Heavy snow and rain/freezing rain over parts of the Northern/Central
Plains into the Upper Mississippi Valley/Upper Great Lakes on Monday...

...There is an Enhanced Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and the Lower Mississippi
Valley/Southeast on Tuesday...

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley on Monday and over parts of the Central
Gulf Coast/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians on Tuesday...

... Snow for the Sierra Nevada Mountains, Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central Rockies; Temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees above average from
Southern Plains into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic...

A front over parts of the Southern High Plains will move eastward to the
Great Lakes/Ohio Valley/Central Gulf Coast by Wednesday. The system will
produce snow, rain, and freezing rain from Northern/Central High Plains to
the Upper Midwest.

The storm will bring snowfall to the Central High Plains. The associated
low pressure will intensify while tracking northeast into the Great Lakes
by Tuesday, producing a large swath of moderate to heavy snow, sleet, and
freezing rain. Intense snow rates of 1-2 inches per hour may be
accompanied by thunder, especially in southern South Dakota and far
southwest Minnesota. The heavy snow will rapidly accumulate more than 12
inches from the Panhandle of Nebraska through southwest Minnesota. The
intense rates and gusty winds will produce areas of blowing and drifting
snow, resulting in snow-covered roads, reduced visibility, and difficult
travel.

Furthermore, the system will develop localized significant ice
accumulations (freezing rain) exceeding 0.25 inches are possible from
portions of northeastern Nebraska through southern Minnesota. The
rain/freezing rain may lead to dangerous travel and isolated power
outages. In addition, ahead of the front over parts of the Southern Plains
into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic, temperatures will be 15 to 25
degrees above average.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will surge northward
over the Western Gulf Coast/Lower Mississippi Valley. The Plains front
moves into the moisture, producing showers and severe thunderstorms over
the area on Monday morning. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk
of severe thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday
through Tuesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will also be an increased threat of EF2-EF5 tornados over
the region.

In addition, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from Monday into Tuesday
morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of
flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most
vulnerable. Further, rain will develop over parts of the Middle
Mississippi/Ohio Valleys and the Great Lakes overnight Monday into Tuesday.

On Tuesday, the threat of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall move
eastward. Therefore, the SPC has issued an Enhanced Risk of severe
thunderstorms over the Lower Mississippi Valley/Southeast from Tuesday
through Wednesday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms
are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few
tornadoes. There will also be an increased threat of EF2-EF5 tornados over
the area.

In addition, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Gulf Coast/Tennessee Valley/Southern Appalachians
from Tuesday into Wednesday morning. The associated heavy rain will create
mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and
small streams the most vulnerable.

Moreover, rain will move into the Northeast on Tuesday, with a chance of
rain/freezing rain over parts of Northern New England. The rain will
continue over parts of the Northeast into Wednesday morning, while showers
and thunderstorms continue over parts of the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic.

In the meantime, a front over the Pacific will move onshore over
California overnight Monday into Tuesday. The storm will begin to produce
coastal rain on Monday afternoon over parts of the Pacific Northwest and
Northern California Coast. By late Monday afternoon, rain will move into
Central/Southern California and produce snow over the Sierra Nevada
Mountains by Monday night into early Tuesday morning. Snow and
lower-elevation rain will move into the Great Basin, Southwest, and
Central/Southern Rockies. Overnight Tuesday, the snow and lower elevation
rain end. However, a new round of coastal rain and higher-elevation snow
will develop over the Pacific Northwest.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php