Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Mon Jan 02 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 03 2023 - 00Z Thu Jan 05 2023

...A low pressure system is bringing heavy snow and ice across the
northern Plains to the upper Midwest as well as heavy rain and severe
weather across the South through the next couple of days...

...Unsettled weather continues along the West Coast with the next round of
heavy precipitation reaching northern California later on Wednesday...

A low pressure system currently developing over the central High Plains
will become the latest winter storm to impact areas from the northern to
central High Plains through the upper Midwest during the next couple of
days.  A swath of moderate to heavy snow is forecast across the northern
half of this general area where highest snowfall amounts could exceed 18
inches.  Meanwhile, a swath of freezing rain and mixed precipitation is
expected across the southern half of this area where highest ice accretion
can exceed a quarter of an inch.  Winds are expected to increase as the
low pressure center tracks across as well but they are not expected to be
excessively strong as the main energy associated with the system is
forecast to be sheared to the east, leading to a gradual weakening of the
storm by Tuesday night.  Nevertheless, heavy snow and gusty winds will
result in reduced visibility and difficult to hazardous travel conditions
in snow-covered roads across the central to northern Plains as the storm
intensifies tonight into Tuesday.

Meanwhile, heavy rain and severe weather will continue to be the main
story across the mid-South through tonight ahead of a strong cold front
trailing south from the intensifying low pressure system.  The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. There will also be an
increased threat of EF2-EF5 tornados over the region.  By Tuesday, the
heavy rain and severe weather threats will shift progressively east into
the eastern Gulf Coast states and perhaps farther inland toward the
Tennessee Valley as the cold front pushes eastward.  These threats are
expected to be slightly lessened on Tuesday.  In the mean time, wet
weather will spread northeast into New England on Tuesday with mixed
precipitation possible over northern Maine.  By Wednesday, much of the
East Coast will be under a good chance of showers and thunderstorms but
areas west of the Appalachians will see rapidly improving weather behind
the cold front.  Ahead of the front, temperatures will be 15 to 25 degrees
above average before colder air arrives behind the front.

Over the western U.S., more unsettled weather is in store as a very active
weather pattern continues to direct strong storm systems from the Pacific
toward the West Coast.  The current wave of moderate to heavy
precipitation up and down the West Coast will catch a break across
California by Tuesday but will linger near the Pacific Northwest coast. 
However, a large and powerful  cyclone brewing in the Pacific is forecast 
to bring the next episode of heavy precipitation toward the West Coast 
on Wednesday.  The heaviest precipitation is forecast to reach northern 
California by Wednesday afternoon.

Kong


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php