Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
345 AM EST Fri Jan 06 2023

Valid 12Z Fri Jan 06 2023 - 12Z Sun Jan 08 2023

...Next round of excessive rainfall to enter northern California tonight
before gradually expanding southward this weekend...

...Snow moving across the Intermountain West and central Rockies today as
light snow lingers across the interior Northeast...

A very active weather pattern across the Pacific Ocean will continue to
push energetic and fast-moving low pressure systems toward the West Coast.
California continues to take the brunt of the heavy precipitation and
strong winds associated with these systems as we head into the first full
weekend of 2023. The next system in line is forecast to enter northern
California and southwest Oregon tonight with heaviest rainfall impacting
the coastal ranges where scattered instances of flash flooding are
anticipated.  By Saturday night into early on Sunday, the excessive
rainfall is forecast to shift ever so slightly south toward the central
portions of the state.  Additional rainfall amounts of 3 to 6 inches, with
locally higher totals forecast for northern California will likely
exacerbate flooding concerns over already saturated soil.  Additionally,
the high elevations of the Sierra Nevada and northern California will
experience more rounds of heavy snow as the system edges slowly eastward.
By Saturday night into early Sunday, the next moisture-laden Pacific
cyclone is forecast to approach California with the next onslaught of
heavy rain once again aiming for northern California.

Moisture associated with a weakening frontal system will track across the
Intermountain West and the central Rockies today in the form of mountain
snows.  The upper-level energy will then eject into the central Plains,
spawning a low pressure wave on Saturday before reaching into the
Mid-Mississippi Valley Saturday night.  Showers and thunderstorms are
expected to form ahead of the trailing cold front Saturday night from
southeast Texas into the Deep South.  Meanwhile, some light snow, sleet,
and freezing rain are possible over Ohio Valley to the north of a lifting
warm front, but limited impacts are currently expected.

Farther east, lingering fragments of upper-level energy across the Great
Lakes are forecast to exit the Northeast tonight and into Saturday.  Light
snow mixed with rain can be expected to linger across the interior
Northeast today while coastal sections could see a period of enhanced
rainfall as a coastal low pressure system is forecast to intensify and
quickly move out to sea.  Generally improving weather conditions are
expected across the Northeast by Saturday night but snow showers could
still linger across northern New England behind a reinforcing cold front.

Kong/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php