Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sun Jan 08 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 09 2023 - 00Z Wed Jan 11 2023

...Next surge of hazardous heavy rain and heavy mountain snow to enter
California tonight...

...Light wintry mix expected across the central Appalachians and northern
Mid-Atlantic into early Monday...

...Well above average temperatures build into the southern Plains...

A barrage of atmospheric rivers continues to impact the West Coast with
the next system set to sweep into California tonight. Heavy rain is
expected to add up to several inches across much of central California
through Tuesday. The cumulative effect of successive heavy rainfall events
will lead to additional instances of flooding. This includes rapid water
rises, mudslides, and the potential for major river flooding. A Moderate
Risk (level 3/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been issued for most of central
California on Monday, extending southward towards the Transverse Ranges of
southern California as well. As moisture continues to sink southward on
Monday night and another push of rainfall enters on Tuesday, flash
flooding is increasing likely over the southern California coastal ranges
through early this week. Susceptible terrain and areas near recent burn
scars will be most at risk for debris flows and rapid runoff. For the
higher terrain of the Sierra Nevada, extremely heavy snow and intense
snowfall rates are anticipated to make travel very dangerous to impossible
at times, including the potential for road closures. Total snowfall
amounts greater than 6 feet are possible above 7000 feet. This amount of
additional accumulating snow on top of an already well built snowpack is
likely to increase the threat of avalanches and strain infrastructure.
Gusty winds are also expected to spread onshore with the approaching
system and could lead to the threat of downed trees and power outrages.
The combination of saturated soil and gusty winds could exacerbate the
tree damage threat. Residents and visitors across this region are advised
to check their local forecast, never drive across flooded roadways (Turn
Around Don't Drown!), and have both an emergency kit and evacuation plan
in place.

Elsewhere, Pacific moisture that is able to push into the Intermountain
West and central Rockies may lead to locally heavy snow on Monday and
Tuesday throughout the higher elevations. For the east, a weak system
progressing toward the East Coast tonight may produce a light wintry mix
throughout the central Appalachians and northern Mid-Atlantic. Lastly,
with tranquil weather anticipated for the remainder of the Lower 48, well
above average temperatures are forecast to build into the southern Plains
early this week. Highs into the 60s and 70s are forecast from the southern
Plains to the Deep South on Tuesday, with upper 70s and 80s possible
across Texas.


Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php