Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
258 PM EST Wed Jan 11 2023

Valid 00Z Thu Jan 12 2023 - 00Z Sat Jan 14 2023

...There is a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of Northern
California through Friday...

...Heavy snow for New England and rain/freezing rain over parts of the New
England and Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley...

...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Southeast on Thursday...

Low pressure over the Southern/Central Plains will move northeastward to
New England by Friday evening. The system will produce snow over parts of
the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley and rain and embedded
thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi Valley from
Wednesday evening into Thursday morning. As the storm moves farther
eastward, moisture from the Gulf of Mexico will stream northward over the
Southeast aiding in the production of showers and severe thunderstorms, on
Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe
thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast from Thursday into Friday
morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent
lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal
threat of hail. The threat of severe thunderstorms ends on Friday.

Furthermore, a weak wave of low pressure over the Upper Great Lakes on
Wednesday evening will merge with the low pressure over the Middle
Mississippi Valley by Thursday. The system will produce light snow over
parts of the Upper Great Lakes and light rain over the Lower Great
Lakes/Ohio Valley overnight Wednesday moving into parts of the Northeast
on Thursday morning. As the precipitation moves into the Northeast
overnight, a few pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over the area.

Overnight Thursday, rain moves into the Mid-Atlantic/Northeast and heavy
snow develops over Northern New England. In addition, a slightly broader
spread of rain/freezing rain will also develop over Northern New England.
On Friday morning, light snow will develop over parts of the Ohio Valley
into the Central Appalachians, continuing over the Central Appalachians on
Friday evening.

Meanwhile, moisture from the Pacific will stream into the West Coast,
producing heavy rain over parts of Northern California and rain and higher
elevation snow over other parts of California and the Pacific Northwest
through Friday evening. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of
excessive rainfall over parts of Northern California from Wednesday to
Friday evening. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized
areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, small streams, and burn
scars the most vulnerable.


Ziegenfelder


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php