Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
236 PM EST Fri Jan 13 2023

Valid 00Z Sat Jan 14 2023 - 00Z Mon Jan 16 2023

...Rounds of heavy rain and snow continue in the West through the
weekend...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. through the
weekend...

The main weather story through the weekend will be the continued heavy
precipitation in the West. Precipitation is currently being produced by a
frontal boundary that has stalled along the West Coast. This boundary is
expected to weaken and dissipate by tonight, then another storm system
will approach the coast this weekend. The second system will move inland
during the day on Saturday and push into the Intermountain West Saturday
night into Sunday. A third storm system is expected to approach the coast
late this weekend and move onshore on Monday. This pattern will produce
rounds of heavy rain at low elevations and heavy snow at high elevations.

California will be particularly susceptible to flooding since they have
received anomalous amounts of rain over the past few weeks. Soils are
nearly completely saturated, so any additional rainfall could cause
flooding concerns, especially near steep terrain and burn scars. There
will be a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for parts of
California tonight and Saturday, and scattered instances of flash flooding
will be possible. There will likely be a short break in precipitation
between the second and third storm systems late Saturday night into early
Sunday, which will lead to a slightly lower risk of flash flooding in
California on Sunday. In the Sierra Nevada region in California,
persistent heavy snow is expected to continue through the weekend,
creating extremely hazardous conditions. Precipitation will spread east
into the Intermountain West Saturday into Sunday, and heavy snow will be
possible for portions of the central and southern Rockies as well.

In the East, the low pressure system over the Northeast and trailing cold
front will push offshore into the Atlantic tonight, and any remaining
precipitation will gradually taper off on Saturday. The eastern U.S. will
be mainly dry through the rest of the weekend, but there could be some
light snow or mixed precipitation along the New England coast.
Temperatures will be cool across the East and Southeast in the wake of the
cold front, and below average temperatures are expected through Saturday.
Temperatures will gradually return to near normal values by the end of the
weekend.

In the central U.S., temperatures will be unseasonably warm through the
weekend into Monday. Broad southerly flow is expected to push warm moist
air into the region, which will push temperatures up to 15-25 degrees
above average. The northern Plains will be the first area to cool back to
seasonable values when a cold front nudges down from the north Sunday into
Monday. A wave of low pressure will push past the Rockies late this
weekend and spawn a surface low over the central and southern Plains,
which will bring temperatures back to near seasonable values in this area.
This low pressure system is forecast to track Northeast early next week.


Dolan

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php