Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
246 AM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 14 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 16 2023

...Rounds of heavy rain and snow continue in the West through the
weekend...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. ahead of a
developing storm system late Sunday...

...Conditions remain chilly across the East Coast and South with
unseasonably cold temperatures spreading into Florida...

Yet another couple Pacific storm systems are forecast to impact the West
this weekend bringing heavy lower elevation rain, significant mountain
snow, and strong winds. The first system will be approaching the coast
Saturday morning and move inland through the day. Heavy rain chances will
rapidly increase across California as another surge of Pacific moisture
accompanies the approaching system. Multiple Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect Saturday in favorable upslope terrain
areas along the California coast, the Transverse Ranges, and the Sierra
where 2-3"+ of rain could lead to localized instances of urban and small
stream flooding as well as mudslides. More moderate rainfall will continue
into Sunday ahead of a second storm system approaching the coast early
Monday morning. Winter Storm Warnings are in effect for higher elevations
in the Sierra where 3-6 feet of snow is forecast through Monday. Wind
Advisories are also in effect Saturday for portions of coastal California
as well as the Central Valley for sustained winds upwards of 20-30 mph and
gusts of 50 mph.

Moisture will also overspread the Pacific Northwest and Interior West
Saturday into Sunday. Most lower elevation/valley locations will start
with rain showers on Saturday before switching over to a wintry mix/snow
Sunday, outside of the Desert Southwest. Little to no accumulations are
expected. Heavier snow is forecast for many higher elevation mountain
locations from Central Idaho south into the Great Basin and Four Corners
Region with numerous winter-weather related advisories in effect.
Locations across the Four Corners Region in particular could see upwards
of 1-2 feet of snow through Monday morning.

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the center of the country ahead
of the unsettled weather to the West. Downsloping winds in the lee of the
Rockies will lead to highs in the 50s for portions of the Northern High
Plains, 50s and 60s for the Central High Plains, and 60s and low 70s for
the Southern High Plains Saturday. A cold front pushing in from the north
will cool temperatures back into the 40s for the Northern High Plains
Sunday. Broad southerly flow will help to warm up temperatures for the
rest of the Plains and Midwest on Sunday as highs reach up into the 30s
for the Upper Midwest, 40s and 50s for the Middle Missouri and Mississippi
Valleys, 50s and 60s for the Central Plains and Lower Mississippi Valley,
and 60s and 70s for the Southern Plains. Rapid cyclogenesis is forecast to
occur in the lee of the Rockies Sunday ahead of an upper level trough
moving in from the West. Increasing winds on top of the warm temperatures
and dry antecedent conditions have prompted a Critical Fire Weather
Outlook highlighting portions of the Southern High Plains from the Storm
Prediction Center. Precipitation chances will increase Sunday night as the
low rapidly moves northeastward into the Middle Missouri Valley. Some
light showers will be possible ahead of a developing cold front across the
Mississippi Valley, with a wintry mix and snow to the northwest of the low
track over portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Upper Midwest.  

Further east, some light snow showers will linger in the Appalachians and
Interior Northeast Saturday as northwest flow remains in place across the
region following the passage of a cold front Friday. A wintry mix will
also continue for portions of coastal New England as an area of low
pressure over the Atlantic passes by to the east. Some light ice
accumulations of around a tenth of an inch will be possible, particularly
for Downeast Maine. High temperatures will remain seasonably chilly for
January on Saturday for most of the East Coast, Ohio Valley, and South as
the cold air mass following the passage of the cold front remains in
place. Highs will be in the 20s for the Interior Northeast; the 30s and
40s for the Northeast, Carolinas, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley; and
the 50s for locations closer to the Gulf and Atlantic coasts, including
Florida. In fact, temperatures both Saturday and Sunday will be upwards of
20 degrees below normal for Florida. A Freeze Watch is in effect for
portions of the northern Peninsula Sunday morning as lows are forecast to
dip into the high 20s.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php