Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
245 PM EST Sat Jan 14 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 15 2023 - 00Z Tue Jan 17 2023

...Rounds of heavy rain and snow continue in the West through the
weekend...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. ahead of a
developing low pressure system late Sunday...

...Conditions remain chilly across the East Coast and South with
temperatures near or below freezing spreading into Florida...


Yet another couple Pacific storm systems are forecast to impact the West
this weekend bringing heavy lower elevation rain, significant mountain
snow, and strong winds. The first system is approaching the coast this
afternoon and will move inland this evening and tonight, with heavy rain
likely occurring across California as another surge of Pacific moisture
streams ahead of the main cold front. Multiple Slight Risks of Excessive
Rainfall (level 2/4) are in effect through tonight in favorable upslope
terrain areas along the California coast, the Transverse Ranges, and the
foothills of the Sierra where 2-3"+ of rain could lead to localized
instances of urban and small stream flooding as well as mudslides. Lighter
rainfall could continue Sunday with another ramp-up late Sunday into early
Monday ahead of a second system. Winter-wise, Winter Storm Warnings are in
effect for higher elevations in the Sierra where 3-6 feet of snow is
forecast through Monday. Wind Advisories are also in effect today for
portions of coastal California as well as the Central Valley for sustained
winds upwards of 20-30 mph and gusts of 50 mph.

Farther north and inland, moisture will also overspread the Pacific
Northwest and Interior West tonight into Sunday. Most lower
elevation/valley locations will start with rain showers today before
switching over to a wintry mix/snow tonight and Sunday, outside of the
Desert Southwest. Heavier snow is forecast for many higher elevation
mountain locations from Central Idaho south into the Great Basin and Four
Corners Region with numerous winter-weather related advisories in effect.
Higher elevations across the Four Corners states in particular could see
upwards of 1-2 feet of snow through Monday morning.

Temperatures will be unseasonably warm in the center of the country ahead
of the unsettled weather to the West. Warmer than average temperatures
currently across the High Plains should shift into the rest of the Plains
and the Mississippi Valley by Sunday and Monday as broad southerly flow
helps to warm up temperatures. Highs will range from the 80s for parts of
Texas, to the 50s and 60s in the Middle Mississippi Valley, and the 30s
and 40s in the Upper Midwest. By Monday morning daily records for warm
lows could be set/tied across the central U.S. with this pattern.
Meanwhile, rapid cyclogenesis is forecast to occur in the lee of the
Central Rockies Sunday ahead of an upper level trough moving in from the
West. Increasing winds on top of the warm temperatures and dry antecedent
conditions have prompted a Critical Fire Weather Outlook highlighting
portions of the Southern High Plains from the Storm Prediction Center.
Precipitation chances will increase in some areas Sunday night into Monday
as the low rapidly moves northeastward into the Middle Missouri Valley.
Some light rain showers will be possible ahead of a developing cold front
across the Mississippi Valley, with a wintry mix and snow to the northwest
of the low track over portions of the Central/Northern Plains and Upper
Midwest.  

Farther east, some light snow showers could linger in the Appalachians
through the evening as northwest flow remains in place across the region
following the passage of a cold front Friday. A wintry mix will also
continue for portions of coastal New England as an area of low pressure
over the Atlantic passes by to the east. Some light ice accumulations of
around a tenth of an inch are possible, particularly for Downeast Maine.
Cooler than normal highs across the East today should be more limited
toward the Southeast by Sunday/Monday as the northeastern U.S. moderates
closer to normal. Florida in particular though can expect a chilly
Saturday night/Sunday morning--Freeze Watches and Warnings are in place
for the northern part of the peninsula as temperatures could dip into the
upper 20s, while Frost Advisories are in effect for the southern part.

Tate/Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php