Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Sun Jan 15 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 15 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 17 2023

...Rain and heavy mountain snow continue across the West...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures in the central U.S. ahead of a
developing low pressure system late Sunday...

...A wintry mix lingers for coastal New England as the rest of the East
Coast begins a warm up Monday...

Lower elevation valley/coastal rain and heavy high elevation mountain snow
continue to expand across the west as multiple storm systems affect the
region. The first system that brought more heavy rain and flooding
concerns across California Saturday is forecast to move through the Great
Basin and towards the Rockies Sunday ahead of another system moving in
from the Pacific early Monday. Showers are forecast to continue along the
West Coast Sunday, including in California, but totals should be lower
than on Saturday. Still, some isolated higher rain rates of 0.5" could
lead to a couple instances of flooding, especially given the very wet
antecedent conditions. In addition, a plume of higher Pacific moisture
will overspread portions of the Desert Southwest, with heavier rain
expected for favorable upslope regions south of the Mogollon Rim in
Arizona.

Rain will also continue for lower elevation valley locations across the
West Sunday, with some snow mixing in outside of the Desert Southwest.
However, any accumulations should remain very light. Heavier snow is
expected at higher elevations in the mountains from the Cascades into the
Great Basin and the Four Corners region. The highest totals through
Tuesday morning will be in the Wasatch, San Juan, and White Mountains, as
well as along the higher elevations of the Mogollon Rim and in the Sierras
where 1-2 feet, locally higher, are forecast. Precipiation chances will
begin to taper off for the northern tier of the West Monday as the next
storm system is forecast to take a more southerly track. Isolated
instances of flooding will remain a threat for southern California as well
as upslope regions of the Sierra and Mogollon Rim. High temperatures will
be seasonably cool in the Pacific Northwest and Northern Rockies with
mostly 40s expected. Cooler than average temperatures are forecast further
south as clouds and precipitation linger in the region, with highs only
reaching the 50s for much of the Desert Southwest and the low 60s for
southern California. Highs in the 50s are forecast for central and
northern portions of California, with 30s and 40s for the Great Basin and
Central/Southern Rockies.

A low pressure system is forecast to develop in the lee of the Rockies as
upper-level energy over the West moves out over the Plains. Strong
southerly flow and downsloping winds ahead of the system will lead to high
temperatures upwards of 20-30 degrees above normal. Highs will be in the
60s for portions of the Central and Southern Plains Sunday, spreading into
the Lower and Middle Mississippi Valley Monday. Highs in the 70s are
forecast for many locations in Texas Sunday with some 80s expected for far
southern Texas Monday. The warm temperatures combined with increasing
winds associated with the lee cyclogenesis and dry antecedent conditions
have prompted a Critical Fire Weather Outlook from the Storm Prediction
Center for portions of the Southern High Plains. Precipitation chances
will ramp up Sunday evening for the Northern/Central Plains, Midwest, and
Mississippi Valley as the storm system strengthens and begins to track to
the northeast. Showers and some thunderstorms are forecast to continue
into Monday for the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys while a
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will spread from the High
Plains northeastward to the Upper Midwest to the north of the surface low
track. Snow accumulations are expected to remain light, but a glaze to a
tenth of an inch of ice will be possible from eastern South Dakota through
southern Minnesota and northern Wisconsin.

High temperatures will remain a bit chilly on Sunday for the East Coast as
the airmass slowly moderates following the passage of a cold front earlier
this weekend. Highs will range from the 30s in New England to the 40s in
the Mid-Atlantic and 50s in the Southeast outside of south Florida, where
60s are forecast. Temperatures begin to rebound more on Monday as 50s
overspread portions of the Mid-Atlantic and 60s return to the South. A
wintry mix of freezing rain, sleet, and snow will linger for coastal New
England and Maine as a low pressure system over the Atlantic tracks
northward towards the region. The precipitation will be heaviest in Maine,
where several inches of snow, an inch of sleet, and 0.25"+ of freezing
rain will be possible through Monday night.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php