Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 AM EST Mon Jan 16 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 16 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 18 2023

...Rain and heavy mountain snow to continue across the West...

...Precipitation chances will increase for the center of the country as
multiple storm systems move through the region...

...Heavy wintry mix forecast for portions of New England as the rest of
the East Coast begins a warm up Monday...

Rain will continue for California and the Desert Southwest with snow for
higher elevations of the Sierra, Great Basin, and Central/Southern Rockies
as a storm system moves through the region. The heaviest rain is expected
Monday for upslope favorable areas along the Sierra and Transverse Ranges
in California as well as the Mogollon Rim in Arizona. Rainfall totals of
1-2", as well as the possibility of more intense rain rates of 0.5"/hour,
may lead to some additional isolated instances of flooding, especially
given the very wet antecedent conditions. The rain will finally start to
end for California by Monday night, ushering in what looks to be a much
drier period of weather after weeks of relentless heavy rain. Heavy snow
is forecast for higher elevations in the mountains, with the highest
amounts upwards of 1-2 feet most likely for the Sierra, Mogollon Rim, and
the White and San Juan Mountains. Snow will also begin to mix in for lower
elevation/valley locations of the Great Basin and Central/Southern Rockies
as temperatures continue to cool. Accumulations should remain light, with
generally 2-4 inches forecast. Precipitation chances will end from west to
east late Monday into Tuesday as the system moves out into the Plains.
Another Pacific storm system will approach the Pacific Northwest late
Tuesday, bringing increased chances for lower elevation valley/coastal
rain and snow in the Cascades. High temperatures will remain unseasonably
cool for most of the West, with 30s and 40s for the Pacific Northwest,
Great Basin, and Rockies and 50s to low 60s for California and the Desert
Southwest.

An active period of weather is in store for the center of the country as
multiple storm systems move through the region. A low pressure system
currently over the Central Plains will track northeastward into the Great
Lakes Region by early Tuesday. Showers and thunderstorms will precede a
trailing cold front pushing eastward through the Mississippi Valley and
into the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley, and Tennessee Valley Monday. Rain
chances decrease as the system weakens by early Tuesday, though some light
showers may spread into the Mid-Atlantic and Carolinas. Some snow and
freezing rain will be possible to the north of the surface low track from
the High Plains east to the Upper Midwest. Snow accumulations should
remain between about 1-2", with a light glaze to 0.1" of freezing rain for
portions of the Upper Midwest. Heavier precipitation chances are expected
to begin late Tuesday with another low pressure system developing in the
lee of the Rockies as a deeper upper-level trough over the West pushes
eastward over the Plains. Impacts from this system will begin with heavy
snow for portions of the Central High Plains to the north of the
developing surface low. Additional areas of snow as well as heavy rain and
thunderstorms will begin to spread eastward into the Plains and
Mississippi Valley by early Wednesday morning. High temperatures will be
unseasonably warm by upwards of 20-30 degrees across much of the
Central/Southern Plains and Mississippi Valley with southerly flow in
place ahead of the passing storm system. Highs will be in the 60s Monday
as far north as Missouri, with 70s for portions of the Southern Plains and
Lower Mississippi Valley. Far south Texas will even see highs into the
mid-80s. Highs in the 50s and 60s will continue Tuesday from the Central
Plains east into the Middle Mississippi and Ohio Valleys, with 70s for
portions of Texas and the Lower Mississippi Valley.

Meanwhile, an area of low pressure over the Atlantic has intensified and
will track northward off the coast of New England, with a heavy wintry mix
of snow, sleet, and freezing rain persisting for the region. Forecast
accumulations of all precipitation types have increased over portions of
Maine in particular, with upwards of 1-3" of snow, 1.5" of sleet, and
0.3-0.5" of freezing rain now expected for Downeast Maine through Tuesday.
However, the rest of the East Coast will see improving temperatures after
a chilly weekend. Highs Monday will be back into the 50s for southern
portions of the Mid-Atlantic and the 60s for the Southeast and Florida,
with 70s for portions of the Southeast and Florida Tuesday.

Putnam

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php