Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
256 AM EST Wed Jan 18 2023

Valid 12Z Wed Jan 18 2023 - 12Z Fri Jan 20 2023

...Winter storm to impact the Central Plains into the Upper Midwest
through Thursday...

...Potential for severe thunderstorms and flash flooding from the Lower
Mississippi Valley into the Ohio Valley Wednesday...

...Unseasonably warm temperatures for much of the southern U.S., with a
Critical Risk of Fire Weather Wednesday...

...Light to moderate rain/snow to affect the western U.S.
Wednesday/Thursday...

Heavy snow is ongoing across portions of the Central High Plains and will
spread northeastward through the Plains and into the Upper Midwest during
the day Wednesday as a low pressure system tracks through the region.
Snowfall totals through Thursday will generally be between 4-8 inches,
with locally higher amounts. The highest probability for some heavier snow
totals over a foot will be from northeastern Colorado into central and
northeastern Nebraska. Sleet and freezing rain are also expected to mix in
with the snow to the southeast of the heavy snow axis. Areas from northern
Kansas northeastward through southeastern Nebraska, southern Iowa, and
into southern Wisconsin currently have the greatest chance of seeing some
light accumulations of freezing rain of around 0.1-0.2". Gusty winds
upwards of 35 mph may also lead to some areas of blowing snow,
particularity for the Central High Plains. The snow should begin to taper
off by late Wednesday for the Central Plains while continuing through the
day Thursday for the Upper Midwest.

To the Southeast, showers and thunderstorms are forecast to develop along
and ahead of a trailing cold front pushing through the Southern Plains and
into the Mississippi, Ohio, and Tennessee Valleys on Wednesday.
Anomalously high moisture from the Gulf will push northward along the
front, helping to fuel some localized heavier downpours. There is a Slight
Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) for portions of the Lower
Mississippi and Lower Ohio Valleys where these downpours, as well as a
tendency for storms to reside over areas for a longer duration as they
move parallel to the front, may lead to a few scattered instances of flash
flooding. The Storm Prediction Center has also issued a Slight Risk for
severe weather (level 2/5) over the same general region as strong shear
may lead to a few embedded organized storms/linear storm segments with the
risk of damaging winds and a couple tornadoes.

Precipitation chances will increase for the East Coast as the storm system
moves into the Northeast on Thursday, amplified by a deepening low
pressure center over the coastal Atlantic. A wintry mix of snow, sleet,
and freezing rain is expected for the Interior Northeast where
temperatures will remain colder. Snow accumulations of 2-4 inches, locally
higher, are forecast for higher elevations of Upstate New York/New England
through Friday morning, with the snow likely continuing into the day
Friday. Further south, light to moderate rain showers will push through
coastal New England, the Mid-Atlantic, and the Appalachians. The heaviest
showers are most likely for coastal New York and New England near the
intensifying low pressure over the Atlantic. 

The southerly flow ahead of the cold front will also lead to unseasonably
warm temperatures upwards of 15 to 20 degrees above average for much of
the southern U.S. Wednesday and Thursday. Highs will be in the 60s
Wednesday from Oklahoma east through the Lower Ohio Valley, the Tennessee
Valley, and into the southern Mid-Atlantic, with 70s from Texas east
through the Lower Mississippi Valley, Southeast, and Florida. While
temperatures will cool Thursday for much of the Southern Plains following
the passage of the cold front, the warm temperatures will spread further
northeastward with 60s pushing northwards into the Upper Ohio Valley and
70s into the Carolinas. A few record-tying/record-breaking high
temperatures will even be possible for locations in the coastal
Southeast/Carolinas. Unfortunately, the warm, dry conditions combined with
strong, gusty winds following the cold front pushing through the Southern
High Plains have prompted the Storm Prediction Center to issue a Critical
Fire Weather Outlook for portions of central and western Texas Wednesday.

Another storm system is forecast to move southeastward through the Pacific
Northwest Wednesday and into the Northern Rockies, the Great Basin,
California, and the Desert Southwest late Wednesday into Thursday,
bringing light to moderate coastal rain and mountain snow. A wintry mix of
rain and snow is expected for lower elevation interior valleys, though any
accumulations should remain light. Heavier mountain snow will be possible
for the Cascades, Sierra, and mountain ranges of the Great Basin, with the
highest totals of over a foot possible for the Sierra. 

Putnam


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php