Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 335 PM EST Wed Jan 18 2023 Valid 00Z Thu Jan 19 2023 - 00Z Sat Jan 21 2023 ...Heavy Snow from the Central Plains into the Upper Great Lakes and areas of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Middle Mississippi Valley to parts of the Northeast... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall over parts of Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Western Ohio Valleys through Thursday morning... ...There is a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Southeast on Thursday... A strong storm over the Central Plains will move northeastward to the Great lakes by Thursday afternoon, then move off the Northeast Coast by Friday morning. The winter storm over Central Plains will track into the Great Lakes by Thursday with a mixture of heavy snow, sleet, and freezing rain. Snow and some ice will expand into the Northeast on Thursday and continue into Friday. Intense snowfall rates greater than 2 inches per hour are possible at times within the heaviest snow bands from Nebraska through northern Michigan. The heavy snowfall could result in additional snowfall exceeding 12 inches in some areas, producing event total snowfall in excess of 15 inches. These heavy snowfall rates combined with winds gusting up to 35 mph will result in dangerous travel due to blowing snow with near-zero visibility at times. An icy wintry mix of freezing rain and some sleet is likely from northern Kansas through southern Iowa. The icy wintry mix will produce slippery roads/sidewalks, with isolated power outages and tree damage also possible where the heaviest ice accumulates. This system will then move into the Northeast Thursday night through Friday night. Heavy snow rates of 1 plus inches per hour will create dangerous travel early Friday morning across New England, with lighter snows continuing through much of Friday. Furthermore, freezing rain may lead to ice accumulations of more than 0.1 inches, especially in the Catskills and Berkshires, leading to slippery travel. Furthermore, the system will produce showers and severe thunderstorms from parts of the Ohio Valley to the Lower Mississippi Valley. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Western Ohio Valleys through Thursday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. Accompanying the thunderstorms will be heavy rain. Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall with these thunderstorms over parts of the Middle/Lower Mississippi, Tennessee, and Western Ohio Valleys through Thursday morning. The associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable. The area of severe thunderstorms will cover a much smaller area on Thursday. Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Ohio Valleys from Thursday into Friday morning. The hazards associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes. However, the threat of excessive rainfall ends on Thursday. Meanwhile, a front moves into the Pacific Northwest, producing coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Pacific Northwest and Northern California. The rain will end over the Northwest/Northern California Coast on Wednesday. The snow will move into the Northern Intermountain Region and the Great Basin. On Thursday, the rain and higher-elevation snow will move southward from Central California to parts of Southern California by late Thursday afternoon. The rain and snow will end over California by Friday morning. Overnight Thursday, the snow over parts of the Great Basin will move into parts of the Southwest by Friday morning. By Friday evening, the snow will expand into parts of the Central/Southern Rockies. Ziegenfelder Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php