Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
309 AM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 21 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023

...Heavy snow for portions of the Central High Plains today...

...Unsettled weather with heavy showers and thunderstorms expected across
the Gulf Coast states and Southeast this weekend...

...Developing East Coast coastal low to bring a new winter storm to the
Northeast by Sunday night and Monday...

Light snow may linger across portions of the Great Lakes and New England
regions this morning in the wake of the low pressure pressure pulling
offshore of the Northeast. Meanwhile, high pressure will build over the
central U.S. covering much of the Midwest and the Ohio Valley allowing for
drier and warmer air to filter in. The daily temperatures this weekend and
into early next week are expected to be near or slightly above normal.

A storm system will be dropping southeast across the Four Corners states
today and will allow an axis of accumulating snowfall initially across the
Central Rockies. A concentrated area of moderate to heavy snowfall is
anticipated  for the central High Plains, parts of southeast Colorado and
western Kansas. Accumulations of 6 to 10 inches will be possible by
tonight. The leading low and associated front will continue to track
through the Midwest toward the Great Lakes region while slowly weakening,
but may yield light amounts. Farther south, the energy with this system
will be focusing a developing area of low pressure across the western Gulf
of Mexico. This system is expected to lift through the Southeast and into
the Mid-Atlantic region by early Sunday before deepening and gaining speed
up the coastline. This will yield a sufficient return flow of warm air and
moisture from the Gulf of Mexico and may lead to areas of locally heavy
showers and thunderstorms to impact the Gulf Coast states and the
Southeast this weekend. Areal averages up to 2 inches may be possible
which may lead to a very localized threat of flash flooding and severe
weather be possible on Sunday as a few stronger thunderstorms cross the
Southeast, and the Weather Prediction Center and Storm Prediction Center
respectively have issued a Marginal Risk of these specific hazards. As
this area of low pressure deepens along the East Coast Sunday night and
approaches the Northeast by Monday, there will be an expanding area of
moderate to locally heavy snow across the interior sections of New York
and New England just in time to start the new week.

Once the above system exits into the Plains much of the West will have
strong high pressure building into early next week. Temperatures will rise
to 10 to 20 degrees above seasonal average for late January. In contrast,
the overnight lows will fall enough that some of the interior valleys of
California, including the San Joaquin Valley, may observe subfreezing
temperatures. Precautions should be taken accordingly to protect any
sensitive outdoor agricultural interests. A new cold front will dive
southeast across the Intermountain West by the end of the weekend, and
this will help to reinforce below normal temperatures heading into early
next week.

Campbell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php