Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 PM EST Sat Jan 21 2023

Valid 00Z Sun Jan 22 2023 - 00Z Tue Jan 24 2023

...Moderate to heavy snow from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes
and heavy snow over parts of New England...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
over parts of Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Central Appalachians on
Sunday and parts of New England on Monday...

A storm over the Southern Plains will merge with a front and low pressure
over Central Gulf Coast by Sunday morning, moving northward along the East
Coast to Cape Cod by Monday. The system will produce light to moderate
snow over parts of the Central Plains/Middle Mississippi Valley on
Saturday afternoon into the early evening. Overnight Saturday, the storm
will produce moderate to heavy snow over parts of the Ohio Valley. By
Sunday afternoon, the system makes moderate to heavy snow over parts of
the Northeast and heavy snow over parts of Northern New England from
Sunday evening into Monday evening. Pockets of rain/freezing rain will
also develop overnight Sunday into Monday over parts of New England.

Meanwhile, the storm will produce rain over parts of the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys on Saturday evening into Sunday and showers/moderate
to severe thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Central Gulf Coast through Sunday morning. The hazards associated with
these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

Likewise, the storms will produce areas of moderate to heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Central Gulf Coast into the Southeast through Sunday morning.
The associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

Furthermore, as the storm moves eastward, rain will develop over parts of
the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys on Sunday, moving into the Mid-Atlantic by
Sunday evening. Moreover, pockets of rain/freezing rain will develop over
parts of the Central Appalachians from early Sunday morning into Sunday
afternoon. Finally, showers and moderate to severe thunderstorms will
develop closer to the gulf coast on Sunday. Therefore, the SPC has issued
a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the Eastern Gulf
Coast/Southeast from Sunday through Monday morning. The hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

In addition, the storm will produce moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Eastern Gulf/Southeastern Coast from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain.

In the meantime, a front will move onshore over the Pacific Northwest and
move southward to Northwest Mexico by Monday. The system will produce
coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Northwest on Saturday
evening. Overnight Saturday, the snow will move into the Intermountain
Region/Great Basin and the Central Rockies on Sunday. Overnight Sunday,
the snow will develop over parts of the Southwest and into the
Central/Southern Rockies on Monday.


Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php