Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 12Z Sun Jan 22 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023

...Moderate to heavy snow from the Ohio Valley into the Lower Great Lakes
and heavy snow over parts of New England...

...There are Marginal Risks of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
over parts of Central Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Central Appalachians
today and parts of New England on Monday...


A storm over the Southern Plains will merge with a front and low pressure
over Central Gulf Coast this morning and will then track northward along
the East Coast to Cape Cod by Monday and offshore northern New England by
Tuesday. Moderate to heavy snowfall will blanket portions of the
Northeast, especially for northern New England tonight and through most of
Monday. Within in this widespread area of precipitation there may be
embedded pockets of rain and freezing rain. In addition to the snow, this
system will also usher in gusty winds. Winter Weather Advisories and
Winter Storm Watches span from western North Carolina to Downeast Maine.
Meanwhile, the storm will produce rain over parts of the Lower Mississippi
and Tennessee Valleys early this morning and showers/moderate to severe
thunderstorms over the Central Gulf Coast. The Storm Prediction Center has
identified parts of the Gulf Coast as having a Marginal Risk for severe
storms through Monday morning. WPC has Marginal Risk areas in effect along
the Gulf Coast and into the Southeast as well. The main hazards associated
with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe thunderstorm wind
gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail. The associated heavy
rain will create localized areas of flash flooding, affecting areas that
experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. Furthermore, as this system
progresses eastward, rain will develop over parts of the Tennessee and
Ohio Valleys today and will then advance into  the Mid-Atlantic tonight.
Pockets of rain/freezing rain may also develop over parts of the Central
Appalachians this morning and into the afternoon hours.

A front pressing through the Pacific Northwest today will continue to move
southward to northwest Mexico by the start of the work week.  The system
will produce coastal rain and higher-elevation snow over the Northwest,
the Intermountain Region/Great Basin and the Central Rockies today before
developing over parts of the Southwest and into the Central/Southern
Rockies on Monday.


Campbell/Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php