Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
242 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2023

Valid 00Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 00Z Wed Jan 25 2023

...Heavy snow over parts of Northeast...

...There is a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall
over parts of the Eastern Gulf Coast and Southeast...

...Pockets of rain/freezing rain over parts of the Central Appalachians
and Northeast...

A storm over the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic will move northward along the
East Coast to Cape Cod by Monday, then move into the Canadian Maritimes by
Tuesday. The system will produce snow over parts of the Ohio
Valley/Central Appalachians and heavy snow will start over the Northeast
on Sunday evening into Monday. Pockets of rain/freezing rain will also
develop overnight Sunday into Monday over parts of The Central
Appalachians into the Northeast. The snow will result in reduced
visibility and hazardous driving conditions.
Meanwhile, rain will develop over parts of the Tennessee/Ohio Valleys and
the Mid-Atlantic by Sunday evening. Additionally, showers and moderate to
severe thunderstorms will develop over the Southeast. Therefore, the SPC
has issued a Marginal Risk of severe thunderstorms over parts of the
Eastern Gulf Coast/Southeast through Monday morning. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, a few tornadoes, and a minimal threat of hail.

In addition, the storm will produce moderate to heavy rain. Therefore, the
WPC has issued a Marginal Risk of excessive rainfall over parts of the
Eastern Gulf/Southeastern Coast from Sunday through Monday morning. The
associated heavy rain will create localized areas of flash flooding,
affecting areas that experience rapid runoff with heavy rain. The threats
of severe thunderstorms and excessive rainfall will end on Monday.
In the meantime, a front over the Central/Southern Rockies into the
Southwest will move southward to Northwest Mexico by Monday. The system
will produce snow over the Intermountain Region/Great Basin and expand
into the Southwest overnight Sunday. On Monday, the snow will develop over
parts of the Southwest and into the Central/Southern Rockies. The snow
will continue over parts of the Southwest and Central/Southern Rockies
overnight Monday.

On Tuesday, moisture from the Western Gulf of Mexico will stream northward
over the Southern Plains producing showers and severe thunderstorms.
Therefore, the SPC has issued a Slight Risk of severe thunderstorms over
the Central Gulf Coast and the Southeast on Tuesday. The hazards
associated with these thunderstorms are frequent lightning, severe
thunderstorm wind gusts, hail, and a few tornadoes.
Moreover, the showers and thunderstorms will produce heavy rain.
Therefore, the WPC has issued a Slight Risk of excessive rainfall over
parts of the Western Gulf Coast and Lower Mississippi Valley. The
associated heavy rain will create mainly localized areas of flash
flooding, with urban areas, roads, and small streams the most vulnerable.
Furthermore, on Tuesday, the system will produce light to moderate snow
over parts of the Southern High Plains into northwest Arkansas.

Also, on Tuesday, upper-level energy move over the Northern Rockies into
the Northern Plains will produce light snow over parts of the Northern
Intermountain Region/Northern Rockies and Northern High Plains into the
Great Basin/Central Rockies. The snow will result in reduced visibility
and hazardous driving conditions.

Ziegenfelder

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php