Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
255 AM EST Mon Jan 23 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 23 2023 - 12Z Wed Jan 25 2023

...Heavy snow and coastal rain over parts of Northeast on Monday...

...Well organized storm system to bring potentially heavy snow from
western Texas to Arkansas, and severe weather near the Gulf Coast on
Tuesday...

The weather pattern will be quite active across the central and eastern
U.S. with two well-organized low pressure systems making weather headlines
through the middle of the week.  The first is the ongoing coastal low
pressure that will continue to bring widespread rain from the Mid-Atlantic
Coast to southern New England on Monday, and moderate to heavy snow from
Upstate New York to central Maine where 6-12 inches of snow could
accumulate by Monday night.  Winter storm warnings are in effect for these
areas.  It will also be windy owing to the strong pressure gradient that
will be in place, particularly near the coastal areas.  Surface high
pressure will briefly settle in across the Eastern U.S. on Tuesday in the
wake of that storm system.

Attention then turns to the next developing storm system across New Mexico
and Texas on Tuesday morning, with widespread precipitation breaking out
in response to strong moisture return from the western Gulf.  There will
be enough cold air in place from the Texas Panhandle to much of Oklahoma
to support snow, some of which could be locally heavy.  This low continues
to develop further going into Tuesday night and Wednesday, with noteworthy
snow affecting much of northern Arkansas and into western Tennessee.  The
warm sector of this storm system will be mainly confined to coastal areas
of the central Gulf Coast owing to the southerly track of the surface low,
but there should be enough kinematics and instability in place to support
the development of severe thunderstorms from southern Louisiana to the
Florida Panhandle on Tuesday, where an enhanced risk of severe weather is
in effect from the Storm Prediction Center.  Additionally, a Slight Risk
of excessive rainfall is also in effect from eastern Texas to
south-central Mississippi where rainfall totals could exceed two inches in
some areas, with the potential for rounds of training convection.

Elsewhere across the continental U.S., some light snow is likely across
portions of North Dakota, Minnesota, and into the northern Great Lakes as
a Alberta clipper moves through the region.  It should continue to remain
dry across most of California, Nevada, and Oregon with no Pacific storm
systems expected.  Patchy areas of light snow are likely across the
Rockies and the Cascades.  Temperatures will generally be below average
across most of the interior Western U.S. and Southern Plains, and a surge
of mild weather from the Southeast to the East Coast by Wednesday ahead of
the second storm system.

Hamrick


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php