Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
300 AM EST Tue Jan 24 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 24 2023 - 12Z Thu Jan 26 2023

...A new storm system over the South expected to bring heavy snow to
portions of the Southern High Plains, Mid- Mississippi Valley, Ohio
Valley, Great Lakes and Northeast through midweek...

...Strong to severe thunderstorms and a threat of flash flooding can be
expected across portions of the Gulf Coast states and Lower Mississippi
Valley Tuesday through early Wednesday...

Some areas of New England may have lingering light snow today as the
coastal low exits the Canadian Maritimes Additionally, colder and drier
air will filter into the region within the gusty flow behind this system.
A developing winter storm across the South will lift northeast through the
Mid-South and into the Ohio Valley and Mid-Atlantic states by Wednesday.
Showers and thunderstorms are expected across the Gulf Coast, Lower
Mississippi Valley and portions of the Southeast ahead of and along the
approaching cold front. The Storm Prediction Center has identified much of
the Gulf Coast as having an Enhanced Risk for severe weather through
Wednesday morning; while WPC has a Slight Risk for excessive rainfall over
portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and eastern Texas. The area of
convection will shift to the Southeast and Mid-Atlantic region on
Thursday, SPC has a Slight Risk from northern Florida to coastal Virginia
and WPC has a Marginal Risk for excessive rainfall for parts of the
Southeast. Strong winds and several tornadoes are expected, which includes
a threat for a strong tornado. Meanwhile, as much as 1 to 3 inches of rain
with locally heavier amounts are expected across areas of southeast Texas
through the lower Mississippi Valley, which may result in local areas of
flash flooding.

To the north, there will be adequate cold air present over the central and
north states for a swath of accumulating snow to near/north of the low
pressure center as it lifts north and east. This will include an area from
the Texas/Oklahoma Panhandles through large areas of the Ohio Valley,
Lower Great Lakes region and northern Mid-Atlantic. Some of the highest
snow accumulations are expected to align over the Ozark Mountain region of
Missouri and Arkansas by Tuesday night through early Wednesday then
streaking north of the Ohio River through southeast Michigan, and into New
York and Pennsylvania on Wednesday afternoon and night. Amounts on the
order of 4 to 8 inches of snow with isolated heavier amounts are possible.
These heavier snows will be overspreading the remainder of the interior
Northeast Wednesday night as low pressure arrives.

An Alberta Clipper dropping through the Northern High Plains, Upper
Mississippi Valley and into the Upper Great Lakes region will usher in
areas of light snow. It should continue to remain dry across most of
California, Nevada, and Oregon with no Pacific storm systems expected and
high pressure focused across much of the Intermountain West. Patchy areas
of light snow are expected over the Rockies and the Cascades. Temperatures
will generally be below average across most of the Intermountain West and
the southern Plains, with above normal temperatures for much of the
eastern third of the nation going through midweek.

Campbell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php