Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
229 AM EST Sat Jan 28 2023

Valid 12Z Sat Jan 28 2023 - 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023

...Heavy snow possible across parts of the central Rockies, Midwest, and
Great Lakes...

...Arctic air surging southward into the central United States and
Intermountain West this weekend to produce potentially dangerous wind
chills...

...Instances of heavy rain and flash flooding possible throughout the Gulf
Coast and Southeast on Sunday...

The main weather story over the next few days will be associated with an
arctic cold front diving southward through the Great Plains and
Intermountain West, bringing bitter cold temperatures in its wake and the
chance for impactful snow. For the northern/central High Plains, Rockies,
and western U.S. mountain ranges, snow is expected to continue along and
behind the frontal boundary today and focus over the central Rockies by
Sunday. The heaviest additional snowfall totals are forecast to occur over
the higher elevations of Wyoming and western Colorado, where multiple feet
of snow are possible. Heavy snow may also swing into the southern
California mountains on Sunday, which could make travel difficult through
Cajon Pass in particular. Widespread Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued for much of the region due to the
potential for snowfall to make driving conditions treacherous. Snow could
be heavy at times and drastically reduce visibility, making travel even
more dangerous.

Low pressure developing and riding along the frontal boundary over the
central Plains this morning is producing an axis of moderate to locally
heavy snow just to the north of its center. An additional narrow swath of
4-6" of snow, with locally higher totals, is forecast from northern Iowa
through Lower Michigan by early Sunday. In addition to the potential for
snow, frigid temperatures will overspread much of the region as strong
high pressure in western Canada sends a surge of arctic air southward
behind the frontal boundary draped across the Intermountain West and
Plains. Temperatures 20 to 40 degrees below average are forecast to spread
into the northern Rockies and northern/central Plains by Sunday, with
highs only reaching into the single digits and lows dropping into the
minus teens. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder and could lead to
dangerous conditions for individuals spending an extended amount of time
outdoors.

As the arctic frontal boundary progresses southward into the southern
Plains, a northward surge of warm and moist air ahead of the system will
produce showers and thunderstorms across the Gulf Coast and Southeast. A
few storms will have the capability of containing intense rainfall rates,
which could lead to scattered instances of flash flooding. Additionally, a
few isolated thunderstorms are also possible on Sunday along the central
Gulf Coast. A Marginal Risk (level 1/4) of Excessive Rainfall has been
issued for southeastern Texas and western Louisiana today to further
highlight the chances for flash flooding, with the threat expanding in
severity and areal coverage on Sunday, as a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall covers the entirety of the Gulf Coast and into southern
Georgia.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php