Short Range Forecast Discussion NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD 253 AM EST Sun Jan 29 2023 Valid 12Z Sun Jan 29 2023 - 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023 ...Frigid temperatures grasp the central and western United States through early this week... ...Heavy rain and instances of flash flooding possible across the Gulf Coast States today... ...Periods of sleet and freezing rain to extend from the southern Plains to the Ohio and Tennessee valleys over the next few days... January is set to go out on cold note this year throughout much of the central and western U.S. as a strong cold front has slid into the southern Plains and Great Basin. Temperatures are forecast to range from 20 to 40 degrees below average today and Monday across much of the Great Plains, Upper Midwest, northern Rockies, and Intermountain West. This equates to highs only reaching the single digits and lows dipping into the minus teens and 20s for the northernmost locations. Gusty winds will make it feel even colder, with wind chills reaching as low as 50 below zero across parts of North Dakota and northern Minnesota. Wind Chill Warnings and Advisories currently stretch from the northern Plains to the northern Texas Panhandle. Residents are urged to avoid extended outdoor activities if possible and wear appropriate clothing. This same cold front responsible for the deep chill over much of the country will also be responsible for a swath of wintry precipitation and periods of heavy rain from the Deep South to New England over the next few days. Anomalous moisture content flowing out of the Gulf of Mexico will aid in numerous showers and thunderstorms today, mainly stretching from southeast Texas to the coastal Carolinas. Rainfall totals could add up to 3 inches or more in some spots, which may create flash flooding concerns. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of Excessive Rainfall valid through Monday morning has been issued for a region extending from southeast Texas to southwest Georgia. Additionally, the Storm Prediction Center is highlighting a Marginal Risk (level 1/5) of severe thunderstorms today across southeast Texas and the central Gulf Coast. To the north, cold air filtering in behind the frontal boundary will lead to areas of snow, sleet, and freezing rain along a corridor spanning from the southern Plains to New England. A couple waves of precipiation are forecast to develop and lead to more enhanced areas of wintry precipitation over the next few days. The first wave of low pressure is expected to continue progressing northeastward into northern New England today and produce several inches of fresh snow from far northern New York to northern Maine. Meanwhile, cold air flowing over open lake waters will lead to lake effect snow over many western facing lakefronts through Tuesday. Light to moderate icing is anticipated to be the main concern farther south from Texas to the Tennessee and Ohio valleys. A long duration event with numerous days of freezing rain and sleet likely will make for potentially dangerous travel conditions on untreated roadways through early this week. The most substantial freezing rain accretion is currently forecast to occur over central Texas, Arkansas, and southern Arkansas, where the potential exists for maximum ice accrual of up to around a quarter of an inch. Elsewhere, as the previously mentioned arctic cold front pushes southward across the Great Basin in tandem with a closed upper-level low developing over California, heavy snow may impact several parts of the central Rockies and into the southern California mountains. Over a foot of snow is possible across the highest peaks and could make travel difficult for some mountain passes. Snell Graphics available at https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php