Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
253 AM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 12Z Mon Jan 30 2023 - 12Z Wed Feb 01 2023

...Prolonged and potentially significant icing event to impact a large
area from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley...

...Frigid temperatures over the central and western United States to begin
moderating early this week...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across eastern Texas and
the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

A strong arctic cold front has progressed through the Great Plains and
will set the stage for an impactful winter weather event throughout the
southern Plains and Mid-South. As precipiation overruns the frontal
boundary and pushes north into the cold airmass in place at the surface
over the next several days, freezing rain and sleet is likely to be the
main precipitation type beginning as early as this morning in the form
freezing drizzle. With the weather pattern expecting to remain in place
through at least Wednesday, several rounds of wintry weather may lead to
icy conditions from Texas to Tennessee. As a result, sleet and freezing
rain accumulations are likely to create widespread hazardous travel
conditions for several days in a row, especially on untreated surfaces.
Ice accretion is anticipated to impact a large geographical region as
well, with light amounts spanning over at least 15 states. Total freezing
rain amounts could become significant across parts of central Texas,
southwest Oklahoma, central Arkansas, and western Tennessee, where over a
quarter inch of ice accrual is forecast. Additionally, low to moderate
chances for three-day ice accretion over a half inch exists over parts of
central Texas and Arkansas. In addition to the potentially hazardous
travel conditions, this amount of ice can lead to scattered tree damage
and power outages. Sleet accumulations up to a half inch are also possible
along far northern sections of the precipitation shield from northern
Texas to northern Arkansas, which can also lead to treacherous travel or
add to the already slippery conditions. Winter Storm Warnings and Winter
Weather Advisories have been issued.

The cold airmass responsible for the icy forecast in the Mid-South will
also lead to a frigid start to the new workweek throughout the remainder
of the central U.S. and into the western states. Temperatures 20 to 30
degrees below average will support single digit high temperatures from the
central High Plains to the Upper Midwest today, with lows starting out
below zero. Gusty winds will also create dangerous wind chills, as low as
55 below zero in the northern Plains this morning. Wind Chill Warnings and
Advisories have been issued to further highlight the extreme cold threat,
spanning from Oregon to Wisconsin. Fortunately, the bitter cold airmass
will gradually warm through midweek, but temperatures are forecast still
remain below average for a majority of the Nation outside of the Southeast.

By Wednesday, an influx of moisture over eastern Texas may lead to periods
of heavy rain and flash flooding concerns. This area is likely to contain
saturated soils by this point and any excessive rainfall could be more
likely to spawn instances of flooding. A Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall has been issued for Wednesday from eastern Texas to
northwest Louisiana.

Elsewhere, a closed upper-level low dropping south today off the coast of
southern California will help funnel moisture into the Southwest and
Central Rockies. Additional periods of heavy snow are possible over the
high terrain of western Colorado, as well as the southern California
mountains. Travel could be difficult at times for some of the highest
mountain passes. Farther east, lake effect snow is likely downwind of the
Great Lakes early this, with the heaviest amounts of over 6 inch possible
off Lake Superior and Lake Erie. Otherwise, periods of light snow are
possible throughout the Interior Northeast and Mid-Atlantic as a cold
front pushes through by Tuesday.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php