Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
254 PM EST Mon Jan 30 2023

Valid 00Z Tue Jan 31 2023 - 00Z Thu Feb 02 2023

...Prolonged and potentially significant icing event to impact a large
area from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley...

...Frigid temperatures over the central and western United States to begin
moderating early this week...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across eastern Texas and
the lower Mississippi Valley on Wednesday...

The headlining weather story over the next several days will be the
long-duration ice storm across portions of the Southern Plains and
Mid-South that is ongoing and forecast to continue into Wednesday. In the
wake of the arctic frontal boundary passage, warm, moist air overrunning
cold air along the boundary draped across the region will produce freezing
rain and sleet that could lead to significant impacts. Furthermore,
multiple rounds of wintry precipitation are forecast, with light freezing
rain and sleet expected through Monday evening and continuing on and off
through at least Wednesday. Widespread ice accumulations of greater than a
quarter of an inch are likely, with localized areas receiving as much as
half an inch. In addition to potentially hazardous travel conditions, this
amount of ice will lead to tree damage and power outages across the
hardest-hit regions. Sleet accumulations up to a half inch are also
possible along the far northern sections of the precipitation shield from
northern Texas to northern Arkansas, which can also lead to treacherous
travel or add to the already slippery conditions. As a result, Ice Storm
Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and Winter Weather Advisories have been
issued.

The cold airmass responsible for the icy forecast in the Mid-South will
also lead to a frigid start to the new workweek throughout the remainder
of the central U.S. and into the western states. Widespread temperature
departures of 20-30 degrees below average are forecast throughout much of
the Plains and Intermountain West, with daytime highs in the single digits
possible through Wednesday in the northern stretches of the High Plains.
Bitterly cold air, coupled with gusty winds, has led to the issuance of
Wind Chill Advisories across the central and northern Plains, with wind
chill values forecast to drop to as low as -40F in the Dakotas and
Minnesota on Tuesday morning. Fortunately, the bitter cold airmass will
gradually warm through midweek, but temperatures are forecast to still
remain below average for a majority of the nation outside of the Southeast.

As the arctic cold front responsible for the wintry conditions across the
Southern Plains and Mid-South slowly advances southward, low pressure
developing along the boundary will lead to a northward surge of moisture
across eastern Texas and Louisiana on Wednesday, producing multiple rounds
of heavy rain. A swath of 1-2" rainfall totals is possible across much of
the aforementioned region, leading to a Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall
being issued for eastern Texas and western Louisiana.


Russell/Snell


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php