Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
232 AM EST Tue Jan 31 2023

Valid 12Z Tue Jan 31 2023 - 12Z Thu Feb 02 2023

...Prolonged and significant ice storm to continue impacting a large area
from the southern Plains to the Tennessee Valley...

...Dangerous wind chills over the central and western United States linger
through this morning...

...Heavy rain and scattered flash floods possible across parts of the Deep
South and Southeast by midweek...

The headlining weather story over the next few days will be the ongoing
ice storm affecting portions of the southern Plains and Mid-South that is
forecast to continue into at least early Thursday. In the wake of an
arctic cold frontal passage, warm and moist air overrunning cold air at
the surface draped over the region will produce freezing rain and sleet
that could lead to significant impacts. Furthermore, multiple rounds of
wintry precipitation are forecast, with brief lulls followed by bursts of
sleet and freezing rain that could drastically deteriorate road
conditions. Widespread total ice accretion of greater than 0.25" is likely
from West Texas to western Tennessee, with localized areas receiving as
much as 0.75". In addition to potentially hazardous travel conditions,
this amount of ice will likely lead to tree damage and scattered power
outages across the hardest-hit regions. Sleet accumulations around a half
inch or locally higher are also possible from West Texas to Arkansas,
which can also lead to treacherous travel or add to the already slippery
conditions. As a result, Ice Storm Warnings, Winter Storm Warnings, and
Winter Weather Advisories have been issued. Travelers are advised to check
road conditions before venturing out and drive with extreme caution.

The cold airmass responsible for the icy forecast in the Mid-South will
also lead to one more morning of well below average temperatures and
frigid wind chills throughout the central and western United States.
Widespread temperature departures of 10-30 degrees below average are
forecast throughout much of the Plains and Intermountain West this
morning, with temperatures below zero in many spots. Bitterly cold air,
coupled with gusty winds, has led to the issuance of Wind Chill Warnings
and Advisories across the central and northern Plains, as well as parts of
the Intermountain West. Wind chill values are forecast to drop as low as
-40F to start the day before temperatures begin to rebound for the next
few days. The next shot of arctic air is anticipated to enter North Dakota
and the Upper Midwest by Thursday.

Along and just to the north of the aforementioned frontal boundary
lingering along the Gulf Coast, numerous showers and thunderstorms are
forecast to develop and push eastward from eastern Texas beginning on
Wednesday. This final surge of moisture in tandem with a lifting
upper-level trough exiting northern Mexico may lead to a swath of 1-2" of
rainfall, with locally higher amounts across the Deep South and parts of
the Southeast. Saturated soils throughout the region may exacerbate the
flash flooding concern, which has led to a Slight Risk (level 2/4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Wednesday and Thursday spanning from eastern Texas
to northwest Georgia, with the threat gradually sliding eastward each day.

Elsewhere, lake effect snow continues deep into this winter with several
additional inches of fresh snow likely along the western facing
lakefronts. The highest accumulations are forecast downwind of Lake
Ontario, where a foot of snow is possible. Waves of light to moderate snow
are also possible to the north of a sinking cold front from the Northeast
to the central Appalachians this morning, with an additional round of
light snow possible over the Mid-Atlantic on Wednesday morning.

Snell

Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php